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2012 Senate Elections - Who's Winning, Who's Losing

33 Races, State-by-State

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This article presents insider analysis all 2012 U.S. Senate elections, on state-by-state basis. Thirty-three Senate seats are at stake on November 6, 2012... seats presently held by 21 Democrats, 10 Republicans, and both Independents.

In mid-2012, seven 2012 Senate elections are rated "Toss-Ups," including five seats held by Democrats and two by Republicans in the 112th Congress. If Democrats lose four 2012 races, they will lose control of the Senate in the 113th Congress for the first time since the 109th Congress, from 2005 to 2006.

Arizona US Senate Election 2012

INCUMBENT - Republican Jon Kyl, three terms
Retiring

WHO WILL WIN? - The Republican and Democratic primaries to replace incumbent Sen. Kyl are slated for August 28, 2012.

In May 2012, this race is rated "Leans GOP" by Real Clear Politics because Arizona has voted solidly Republican in recent elections.

However, the growing Latino population and anger over Republican proposals to cut Medicare and Social Security could influence voting enough to elect a Democratic senator.

See Who Will Win Arizona's 2012 U.S. Senate Race? for facts, candidates, analysis, dates, and predictions.

California US Senate Election 2012

INCUMBENT - Democrat Dianne Feinstein, three terms
Running for reelection

WHO WILL WIN? In November, Sen. Feinstein will be challenged by Republican Elizabeth Emken, an autism activist who has never held public office. Ms. Emken was an unsuccessful candidate in 2010 for the U.S. House of Representatives.

In May 2012, this race is rated "Safe Democratic Seat" by Real Clear Politics for several reasons:

  • California is a solidly Democratic state. In the November 2010 elections, California voters elected Democratic candidates to all eight state offices.
  • Incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein is respected on a bipartisan basis across the state.
See Who Will Win California's 2012 U.S. Senate Race? for facts, candidates, analysis, dates, and predictions.

Connecticut US Senate Election 2012

INCUMBENT - Independent Joe Lieberman, four terms
Retiring

WHO WILL WIN? The Democratic and Republican primary elections to replace incumbent Sen. Lieberman are slated for August 14, 2012. Both races feature large fields and several well-known candidates, including two former Congressmen and Republican Linda McMahon, wealthy businesswoman and past president of the World Wrestling Entertainment. Ms. McMahon unsuccessfully ran for the Senate in 2010.

In May 2012, this race is rated "Leans Dem" by Real Clear Politics mainly because blue-state Connecticut has voted a solidly Democratic in recent elections.

See Who Will Win Connecticut's 2012 U.S. Senate Race? for facts, candidates, analysis, and predictions.

Delaware US Senate Election 2012

INCUMBENT - Democrat Tom Carper, two terms
Running for reelection

WHO WILL WIN? In May 2012, this race is rated "Safe Dem Seat" by Real Clear Politics because blue-state Delaware has voted solidly Democratic in recent elections. Also, incumbent Sen. Carper is widely respected and supported in Delaware.

See Who Will Win Delaware's 2012 U.S. Senate Race for facts, candidates, analysis, dates, and predictions.

Florida US Senate Election 2012

INCUMBENT- Democrat Bill Nelson, two terms
Running for reelection

WHO WILL WIN? The Republican primary, set for for August 14, 2012, pits six candidates including four-term Congressman Connie Mack and former Sen. George LeMieux, who served from 2009 to 2011.

In May 2012, this race is rated a "Toss-Up" by Real Clear Politics for several competing reasons:

  • Incumbent Sen. Nelson, a moderate Democrat, is respected and well-liked in Florida.
  • In recent elections, Florida has trended Republican, including for its most recent gubernatorial and Senate contests.
  • Many in Florida are quite dissatisfied with their new Tea Party-leaning Republican governor.
See Who Will Win Florida's 2012 U.S. Senate Race? for facts, candidates, analysis, and predictions.

Hawaii US Senate Election 2012

INCUMBENT - Democrat Daniel Akaka, four terms
Retiring

WHO WILL WIN? Four Democrats and three Republicans had formally declared their candidacies for to replace incumbent Sen. Akaka. The primary elections will be held on August 11, 2012.

In May 2012, this race is rated "Leans Dem" by Real Clear Politics because blue-state Hawaii, President Obama's birthplace, consistently votes Democratic. However, Republican candidate Linda Lingle, former Hawaii governor, is widely respected and should prove to be a strong contender.

See Who Will Win Hawaii's 2012 U.S. Senate Race? for facts, candidates, analysis, and predictions.

Indiana US Senate Election 2012

INCUMBENT - Republican Richard Lugar
Running for reelection, six terms

WHO WILL WIN? The Republican establishment was shocked in May 2012 when Tea Party-conservative Richard Mourdock easily defeated Sen. Lugar for the Republican nomination. Mourdock will be opposed in November by Democratic Rep. Joe Donnelly, a three-term House of Representatives member.

In May 2012, this race was rated "Safe GOP Seat" by Real Clear Politics for two main reasons:

  • Indiana is a solidly Republican-voting state.
  • Incumbent Sen. Richard Lugar is respected on a bipartisan basis across the state.
See Who Will Win Indiana's 2012 U.S. Senate Race? for facts, candidates, analysis, dates, and predictions.

Maine US Senate Election 2012

INCUMBENT - Republican Olympia Snowe, three terms
Running for reelection

WHO WILL WIN? - On February 28, 2012, widely respected Sen. Snow shocked pundits and political-watchers by announcing her plans to not stand for reelection in November 2012.

Six Republicans and four Republicans have declared their candidacies for Maine's primary elections, slated for June 12, 2012. As of early May, a large portion of voters from both parties remain undecided on their candidate choice, per various polls.

See Who Will Win Maine's 2012 U.S. Senate Race? for facts, candidates,analysis, dates, and predictions.

Maryland US Senate Election 2012

INCUMBENT - Democrat Ben Cardin, one term
Running for reelection

WHO WILL WIN? In November, Sen. Cardin will be challenged by Republican Daniel Bongino, who served 12 years in the Secret Service, during the Clinton, Bush, and Obama administrations, after working for four years in the New York City Police Department.

In May 2012, this race is rated "Safe Dem Seat" by Real Clear Politics for two main reasons:

  • Blue-state Maryland is a solidly Democratic state.
  • Incumbent Sen. Ben Cardin is respected legislator on a bipartisan basis across the state.
See Who Will Win Maryland's 2012 U.S. Senate Race? for facts, candidates, analysis, dates, and predictions.

Massachusetts US Senate Election 2012

INCUMBENT - Republican Scott Brown. Took office on February 4, 2010 after winning the special election to replace the late Sen. Ted Kennedy
Running for reelection

WHO WILL WIN? In May 2012, this race is rated a "Toss-Up" by Real Clear Politics for several competing reasons:

  • Incumbent Sen. Brown, a moderate Republican, is admired in Massachusetts.
  • Massachusetts is a solidly Democratic state, one that in recent decades, has rarely elected Republicans to Congress.
Many liberals in Massachusetts deeply resent that Republican Sen. Brown won, in a special election, the seat held by the late Democratic stand-bearer Sen. Ted Kennedy for four decades. They seek to restore this Senate seat to a Democrat.

See Who Will Win Massachusetts' 2012 U.S. Senate Race? for facts, candidates,analysis, dates, and predictions.

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