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US Senate 2012 Election in Hawaii


US Senate 2012 Election in Hawaii
This article presents facts, analysis, and predictions for Hawaii's 2012 U.S. Senate election race.

See 2012 Senate Elections - Who's Winning, Who's Losing for an overview of all 33 US Senate races, on a state-by-state basis.

The Incumbent US Senator
Democratic Sen. Daniel Akaka was first appointed to the U.S. Senate in 1990 to fill a vacancy, and reelected in 1994, 2000, and 2006. Sen. Akaka also served in the House of Representatives, from 177 to 1990.

Incumbent Sen. Daniel Akaka is not running in 2012 for reelection to the U.S. Senate.

Hawaii's 2012 US Senate Race
Four Democrats and three Republicans had formally declared their candidacies for Hawaii's U.S. Senate race, as of the end of February 2012.

The four Democratic candidates include:

  • Former Congressman Ed Case, a House of Representatives member from 2002 to 2007.
  • Congresswoman Mazie Hirono, a two-term House of Representatives members, from 2007 to present.
Former Rep. Case lost his 2006 bid to beat Sen. Akaka for in the Democratic senatorial primary election.

The three Republican candidates include:

  • Former Gov Linda Lingle, who was governor for two terms, from 2002 through 2010. Lingle also served as Mayor of Maui from 1991 through 1999, and as state Republican party chair from 1999 to 2002.
  • John Carroll, former state legislator
  • John P. Roco, a pro-life conservative psychologist
The Republican and Democratic primary elections will be held on August 11, 2012.

Who Will win?
RealClearPolitics.com rates this race a tepid "Leans Democratic" despite the heavily Democratic voting results in Hawaii for many decades... and despite Hawaii's great love and landslide electoral-support for favorite son Barack Obama.

State-wide popularity of former Gov. Linda Lingle, a Republican, is the main reason for blue-state Hawaii's 2012 U.S. Senate race not being rated safely Democratic.

Recent Election Results

Hawaii's two U.S. senators serving in the 112th Congress (2011 to 2012) are:

  • Democrat Daniel Inouye, serving his ninth term
  • Democrat Daniel Akaka, serving his fourth term
Both members of Hawaii's delegation to the House of Representatives are Democrats.

Both Governor Neil Abercrombie and Lieutenant Governor Brian Schatz are Democrats.

In the last four presidential elections, Hawaii voted as follows:

  • 2008 - 72% for Democrat Obama, 27% for Republican McCain
  • 2004 - 54% for Democrat Kerry, 45% for Republican Bush
  • 2000 - 56% for Democrat Gore, 38% for Republican Bush, 6% for Other
  • 1996 - 57% for Democrat Clinton, 32% for Republican Dole, 11% for Other
Hawaii Economic Facts and Voter Demographics

Unemployment Rate as of June 2011 - Hawaii's unemployment rate of 6% falls well below the national average and ranks 41st among all states.

Foreclosure Rates as of June 2011 - Hawaii's foreclosure rate of 1 in every 1,499 homes falls well below the national average, and ranks 35th among all states.

State Residents Living Below Poverty-Level Income - Hawaii's low poverty rate of 9% ranks 46th among all states.

Labor Union Membership - More than 25% of all employees in Hawaii, 143,000 workers, are labor union members.

Senior Citizen Population - Fully 14.3% of Hawaiians are 65 years old and over, the 12th highest senior citizen percentage among all states.

Women as a Percentage of Hawaii's Population - Women comprise 49.9% of all residents of Hawaii, ranking 42nd among all states.

African-American Population - Only 2% of Hawaii residents are African-Americans, ranking 39th among all states.

Hispanic Population - 8.9% of Hawaii residents are of Hispanic heritage, ranking 20th among all states.

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