Obama vs. Clinton: Barack's Remaining Rocky Road to the Nomination

It's not over until it's over. And this race isn't over until either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton obtain 2,025 delegates to the Democratic National Convention.

Until then, the race is on. And either candidate can still conceivably capture the party's 2008 presidential nomination.

Sen. Obama is more than halfway, though, to the magic number, and he has all the upward-and-forward momentum. Sen. Clinton has neither at the moment.

Through the February 5th Super Tuesday primaries, per the MSNBC exit polls for Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina, New Hampshire, California and others, the candidates' core supporters have been:

Barack Obama
• Men and women under 30 years old
• African-Americans, men and women of all ages
• Those with a college education
• Those who attend church once a week or more
• Independents and moderate Republicans
• Those who prioritize "CHANGE" from the current status in D.C.

Hillary Clinton
• White women over 45 years old
• Seniors over 65 years old
• Latinos over 29 years old, both men and especially women
• Those with annual family incomes under $40,000
• Those with a high school education or less
• Union members
• A small lead among white men over 45 years old.

But after eight consecutive primary/caucus post-Super Tuesday wins in the last five days, Barack Obama is showing strong signs that he, not Hillary, is the Democrat who can close this deal and break the electoral stalement by taking from Sen. Clinton's core constituents. Newsweek reports today:

" ... now Obama is making inroads with every Democratic constituency, including the ones that Clinton counted as hers.

" In deeply Democratic Maryland, for instance, Obama won rural voters, union households, white men, independents, African Americans and young people, and held his own among Hispanics — the makings of a broad and tough-to-overcome coalition."

These eight victories were by astonishingly large margins of 20% or more, and came in states as varied demographically as the American people: Nebraska, Louisiana, Washington, Maine, Virginia, Maryland, the Virgin Islands and D.C.

For instance, in Virginia, where Clinton campaigned heavily and expected to be competitive, Obama easily bested her in every possible category:

• White, Latino and African-American voters (except for a slight Clinton edge in white voters over 60 years old)
• Every age group, including senior citizens
• Every family income level
• Every educational level
• Every religious category (except for a 50-50 split of Protestants)
• Among union members
• Urban, suburban and rural areas

BUT!
Do things look therefore rosy for Barack Obama to soon sew up this nomination, and move on to fulltime battling against Republican heir apparent John McCain?

By my calculations, NO!

Sen. Obama can't (yet) afford to lift his eyes and focus from the task at hand: that of securing 2,025 Democratic convention delegates.

But IF nothing unusual or extraordinary occurs between now and March 5, which is the day after the crucial Texas and Ohio primaries, then Barack Obama should be close to being the Democratic party's de facto nominee for the 2008 presidential race.

But that's probably the iffiest IF I've ever written.

Here's what Sen. Obama must do in the next few weeks to capture the Democratic golden prize:

• Win the February 19th Wisconsin primary by a solid margin

• Stay competitive with Clinton in the March 4th Ohio primary, and make in-roads into her base of blue-collar, union workers. Winning is not essential.

• Stay competitive with Clinton in the March 4th Texas primary, and make a significant dent into her base of Latino voters. Again, winning is not essential for Obama.

And to button-down the nomination, Barack Obama must also:

• Make no quotable gaffes

• Have no photographed moments of stupidity. (Think Mike Dukakis grinning dumbly and driving that tank in circles.)

• Make no major stumbles in the upcoming debates on February 21 and 26.

• Assume nothing, take nothing for granted, and retain common-sense humility in all things.

• And campaign, campaign, campaign fearlessly and endlessly, as if he were still the underdog.

IF he can accomplish that tall and tough order, and barring a minor, campaign-energizing miracle in the next few weeks for Hillary Clinton's drive, Barack Obama will be the first African American nominated by a major political party for President of the United States.

I believe that Obama's nomination is probable... but certainly not a done deal as of mid-February 2008. The road is straight and narrow, but it's still chock full of treacherous, campaign-damaging rocks.

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