Obama vs. Clinton: Obama Has Slight Advantage After Super Tuesday

The biggest Democratic winner on Super Tuesday was the voter, because nine months before the presidential election, we don't definitively know our party's nominee. And that's a good thing...

On CNN last night, Democratic party chair Howard Dean repeatedly expressed that the current system of awarding proportional delegates on a statewide basis, rather than "winner takes all" for each state, is designed to give as many voters, and as many states, as possible a voice in selecting the Democratic party candidate.

As a result, more Democratic voters are engaged and vested in this election, and personally feel like an important part of the process. And as another result, Democrats are experiencing record-shattering turnouts around the country.

And perhaps most important, our two remaining candidates are being tested and vetted and thoroughly looked over as part of this prolonged interview by the voters. And that is a very good thing before facing the smear-and-fear Republicans...

Chairman Dean, who achieved superb results in the 2006 midterm Congressional elections with his 50-state strategy, said that he believes that it could be months until either Sen. Clinton or Sen. Obama win enough delegates to secure the party nominaton.

But Who Has the Advantage: Clinton or Obama?
That said, both the Obama and Clinton camps claim victory (of course!) this morning after Super Tuesday, and can legitimately spin the statistics to support their case.

But most pundits detect a slight advantage for Barack Obama...

The Obama camp won more states, and believes that Sen. Obama won a few more delegates than Sen. Clinton. But those differences are insignificant on February 6, 2008, the day after Super Tuesday.

Factors that may give Sen. Obama a small advantage over Sen. Clinton include:

• Momentum and money - Three months ago, Hillary Cinton was regarded as the lone frontrunner, almost inevitable to be the Democratic nominee. And six months ago, Barack Obama's candidacy was given little chance to survive Super Tuesday.

  But Obama's campaign has steadily gained momentum, while Clinton's campaign has lost some steam. Obama supporters donated a mind-boggling $32 million in January 2008, while the Clinton camp raised "over $10 million" in the same 31 days. (See The Resignation of Hillary Clinton by Linda Lowen, About.com Guide to Women's Issues.)

  As a result, word has it that the Clinton campaign may not have the resources to fully compete with the Obama campaign in the Louisiana, Washington and Maine caucuses this upcoming weekend. And Clintonistas may likewise be concerned about the tab for other smaller-state primaries in February, which includes Maryland, Virginia, Hawaii and Wisconsin.

  

  Chuck Todd, NBC's astute political director, speculated that the Clinton campaign may opt to spend most of its coffers on the big March 4, 2008 primary contests in Ohio and Texas, and minimally support the smaller contests before then. Such a strategy is risky (ask Rudy Giuliani!), but likely realistic under the funding circumstances.

• Obama won in key Democratic swing states - The Associated Press believes that much can be inferred about the general election in November based on who, on Super Tuesday, won the swing states of Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri and New Mexico.

  On the Democratic side, Barack Obama won Colorado and Minnesota by unusually wide margins, and eeked out a razor-thin victory in traditional bellweather state Missouri. As the write these words, New Mexico remains too close to call.

  The point here is this: Hillary Clinton won larger, traditionally Democratic states, but won comparatively little in red-state or purple-state (i.e. evenly mixed between red/blue) America outside of Bill Clinton's home state of Arkansas.

  And AP's theory, which I find credible, is that makes Barack Obama more electable in the general election than Hillary Clinton.

  This evidence of electability may sway voters toward Sen. Obama. I have no doubt that electability will be a major factor in voting decisions by Democratic Super Delegates, who ultimately may decide the Democratic party nominee. (See What Are Super Delegates?)

• Democratic caucus/primary schedule going forward - The next three Democratic contests, in Louisiana, Washington and Maine, are all caucuses, venues that have favored Obama's strong grassroots organizations.

  And the largest remaining Democratic contests... Ohio, Texas, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Nebraska... are in Republican red states or politically split purple-states. And, as noted above, Obama, not Clinton, is winning over these potential Democratic swing states. And Obama has garnered the lion's share of red-state Democratic leader endorsements.

But....
But this is all speculation.

Just one slip... one gaffe... one inconvenient disclosure... one unforeseen news event... can tip this heated, neck-in-neck race for the Democratic 2008 presidential nomination toward either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.

And truthfully, nothing matters except what the voters have to say.

Or, to the as-yet unrealized fury of millions of Democratic faithfuls, what the Super Delegates have to say.

(Photo of DNC Chair Howard Dean: Brendan Smialowski/Getty Images. Photo of Sen. Barack Obama on Feb 5, 2008 in Chicago: Scott Olson/Getty Images)

Related Reading
What Are Super Delegates?
Presidential 2008 Primary/Caucus Calendar
Politico.com, Feb 6, 2008: Obama claims delegate lead