Obama vs. Clinton in California: Heavy Turnout Expected in Crucial State

Delegate-rich California expects heavy turnout here among Democratic voters as they go to the polls on Super Tuesday to select between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for the 2008 nomination.

The California Democratic party reports:

" In the final 45 days (to the January 22, 2008 15-day cut-off) prior to Election Day, the Secretary of State's report of registration shows Democrats added 150,633 voters to bring its total to 6,749,406 or 43.0 percent of registered voters statewide.

"Altogether, 244,202 voters were added to the voter rolls in this period, and the Democrats' total of 150,6377 registered is 61.7% of the total - a record for California. In comparison, in the final 45 days of the 2004 presidential primary, Democrats added only 68,007 voters, just 46.5% of the increase of 146,129."

Super Tuesday ends five days of non-stop campaigning by Obama and Clinton forces in the Golden State since their January 31, 2008 debate at the glitzy Kodak Theater. Some of the Los Angeles-area rallies have been wildly energized events attended by tens of thousands of supporters:

• On Saturday, Sen. Clinton unveiled a new, startlingly effective stump speech at Cal State University, Los Angeles to the deafening cheers of thousands.

  She was accompanied by top Latino leaders in the state... Speaker Fabian Nunez of the California State Assembly, LA Mayor Antonio Villraigosa, powerful LA City Councilwoman Gloria Molina..., as well as by top African-American community leaders, including Magic Johnson and Congresswomen Maxine Waters and Diane Watson.

• On Sunday at UCLA, in what a New York Times op-ed writer called "the best campaign rally I’ve seen in 20 years of covering presidential politics," Michelle Obama, Oprah Winfrey, Caroline Kennedy and surprise-endorser California First Lady Maria Shriver masterfully presented the case for Barack Obama's candidacy to screaming, chanting thousands.

  Reported the Times, "Before the event got into full swing, giant screens showed a video by will.i.am of the Black Eyed Peas. A visually diverse lineup of stars — the actresses Scarlett Johansson and Amber Valletta; the rapper Common; the singer John Legend; Kareem Abdul-Jabbar — recited and sang along with a film of Mr. Obama’s speech the night he lost the New Hampshire primary."

• Today, Bill Clinton is speaking at Santa Ana Community College, a heavily Latino area south of Los Angeles, and he made the rounds on Sunday with Rep. Diane Watson (D-CA) to a handful of south-central Los Angeles black churches.

• Sen. John Kerry hosted Obama rallies in three northern California cities, and Sen. Ted Kennedy held well-attended rallies in East Los Angeles.

Who Will Win in California: Clinton or Obama?
The polls suggest that Hillary Clinton holds a lead in this state, but it feels as though Barack Obama has the momentum...

Here are factors that'll be crucial in California's Super Tuesday decision between Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton:

• Barack Obama received the endorsements of all three of the state's most influential newspapers: the Los Angeles Times, the San Francisco Chronicle and La Opinion, the largest Spanish language newspaper in the U.S. and second-most read newspaper in Los Angeles.

• Independents may vote in California's Democratic primary, but not in the Republican primary. Thus, Independents are unable to opt to vote for John McCain. Between the two Democrats in previous primaries, the majority of Independents have leaned toward Obama.

• California has historically voted strongly for woman candidates, and has had two female U.S. senators, Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer, since 1993.

• Bill and Hillary Clinton have strong political roots and have always been popular in all segments of California.

• Californians have already been voting by absentee ballot, and at selected locations, for almost a month already.

California's Democratic delegates to the national convention are selected on a Congressional district basis via a complex method that should favor neither Clinton nor Obama. California is allotted more delegates to the Democratic 2008 national convention than any other state.

We won't definitively know on primary night how many California delegates Obama and Clinton each gained in their battle for the party nomination.

But whichever of the two wins the California popular vote will gain great, almost unsurpassable momentum to the nomination.

I'm completely unable to predict who that might be... Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. But either one will surely be an outstanding choice, destined to beat the Republican contender in November.

Related Reading
The Politics of Oprah Winfrey
Obama Wins Final Debate before Feb 5, Accelerates Momentum to Nomination
New York Times, Feb 4, 2008: Michelle, Maria, Caroline and Oprah on the Hustings in California