Obama Will Likely Win N.H. as Independents Rebuff McCain, Clinton
If New Hampshire independents vote en masse in the Democratic (rather than Republican) primary, Sen. Barack Obama will win the New Hampshire primary election. And Sen. Hillary Clinton will not.
I say this with little doubt after watching the January 5, 2008 New Hampshire debate via a live internet feed by WMUR-TV which featured an astonishingly revealing viewer response graphic that ran throughout the telecast.
While the audience sample was small and likely unscientific, the startling result was unmistakable:
- Democrats generally liked all four remaining candidates.
- Independents strongly liked Obama and, to a lesser degree, Richardson.
- Independents had mixed reactions to Edwards.
- Independents consistently had ultra-strong negative reactions to Clinton.
New Hampshire Independents and John McCain
Per MSNBC, nearly 45 % of the New Hampshire electorate are registered as neither Democrats nor Republicans. To provide flexibility to voters, the Granite state allows same-day voter registration on election day. Thus, at will, any state citizen can vote in any party's primary election.
Analysts and pundits concede that the battle for New Hampshire independents is mainly between Democrat Obama and Republican McCain. Obama is winning that battle for several reasons.
First, in the January 5 debates, John McCain epitomized cynicism and bitterness on parade, exactly the old-style D.C. attitudes that Barack Obama seeks to "beat back." When Sen. McCain snarked and snarled at Mitt Romney, WMUR-TV's viewer response graphic plummeted in disapproval by both independents and Republicans. McCain's snarkiness was neither pretty nor heroic. It was cranky and condescending, and it'll hurt him at the polls.
Also, I agree with George Stephanopoulos of ABC News when he commented after the debates that McCain did Obama a favor by appealing to Republicans during the debate, and staying largely silent on stances atrractive to independents.
Second, there's the matter of the Iraq War. McCain supports both the war and the surge. Obama opposed the Iraq War from the beginning, and wants to bring our troops home.
Per the Los Angeles Times (LAT) reporting on December 30, 2007 on an LAT/Bloomberg poll about New Hampshire independents:
"On Iraq, 74% of independents said they favored withdrawing U.S. troops within a year -- a view shared by 98% of Democrats, but just 33% of Republicans."
Per the LAT, as of a result of independents' disagreements with Republicans on the Iraq War, health care, the economy and other issues:
"... among New Hampshire independents who have chosen the party primary in which they will cast a ballot, 61% said they planned to vote in the Democratic race, 39% in the GOP contest.And among those who have decided whom they will support, more than twice as many said they planned to back Obama, compared to McCain."
What Can Clinton and Edwards Do to Win in New Hampshire?
If Barack Obama attracts votes from at least 25% to 30% of New Hampshire Democrats and the lion's share of independents, he will win the state Democratic primary on January 8, 2008. As I write these words, two days before the primary, an Obama victory is the likeliest scenario.
Hillary Clinton
To snatch victory from the jaws of campaign-shocking defeat, Hillary Clinton must attract a huge portion... say 50% or more... of Democratic votes. In Iowa, she garnered less than 30% for a third place finish.
The Clintons are beloved in New Hampshire, though, and have enjoyed considerable success in the Granite state over the years. And frankly, Hillary Clinton's stump speech and Q&A sessions have never been more effective or appealing than they have been these past few post-Iowa days. She has a slim chance to win the New Hampshire primary, and may, in fact, win more votes from Democratic faithfuls than Sen. Obama.
John Edwards
For John Edwards to finish second in New Hampshire, which is his campaign's realistic goal, he must convince Democrats that Hillary Clinton represents the politics of old, and that Edwards is the viable Democratic answer for real change... not Obama, who he believes is too naive about the essential evils of Corporate America.
John Edwards was brilliant in the debate, and a brilliant tactician in making Sen. Clinton look stodgy and stuck in the past. And he wisely cozied up Sen. Obama, who is widely considered a likeable, unassailable figure.
John Edwards is liked by Democrats, and liked by some independents particularly incensed over health care. If Hillary Clinton has a bad day next Tuesday, John Edwards will probably have a good one. Edwards has little chance to capture the victory, though, as New Hampshire voters normally don't cotton to southerners when presented with another solid alternative.
Bill Richardson
Bill Richardson, who scored only 2% of the Iowa primary vote, will do better in New Hampshire, largely because of the intricacies of Iowa caucus rules. Richardson was educated at Tufts University in Boston, and his wife is a graduate of a small New Hampshire college. They have roots in the New Hampshire community.
But Gov. Richardson has no chance to place first or second in New Hampshire, and a third place finish would be akin to a political miracle.
At this point, Bill Richardson appears to be vying for the vice-presidential spot on the Obama ticket. And rumors persist that the Richardson camp forged a secret deal to swing its supporters to Obama in Iowa, if the governor didn't meet the requisite 15% at caucuses. (Insiders whisper that the Clinton camp is livid with Richardson's "disloyalty"... )
Truth is, Sen. Obama and Gov. Richardson have always been simpatico in their views and stances on most issues, from the Iraq War, alternative energy and health care to free trade, No Child Left Behind, the importance of teachers, college tuition credits, and much more. For President Barack Obama to find a place in his administraton for Bill Richardson would make good sense.
Two New Polls Show an Obama Victory
For reasons described in this column, I'm inclined to believe two polls released today, two days before the New Hampshire primary. Reports Editor & Publisher:
"The new American Research Group poll gives Obama a 12-point lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, 38% to 26%, a 16% swing since the previous poll. John Edwards moved up on Clinton, at 20%, gaining 5% from his previous percentage."Most interesting detail deep in the ARG numbers: Hillary actually leads Obama 34% to 32% among confirmed Democrats, while he tops her 49% to 12% among independents, which may make up one-third of the tally.
"Earlier today the new Rasmussen survey emerged showing a surprising, but now possibly confirmed, 10% Obama lead. Edwards trailed badly in that one. "
After New Hampshire, the next 2008 presidential primaries are:
- January 15: Michigan
- January 19: Nevada (precinct caucuses), South Carolina (Republican primary)
- January 26: South Carolina (Democratic primary)
- January 29: Florida
(Both photos taken on Jan 5, 2008: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Related Reading
Eighteen Thoughts about Choosing Between Obama and Clinton
Only Obama Defeats all 2008 Republicans, Per New Zogby Poll
Obama Soars to Iowa Victory, as Edwards, Clinton Adopt "Change" Motto
WMUR-TV, Jan 5, 2008: Audience Responses to New Hampshire Debates
Los Angeles Times, Dec 30, 2007: McCain losing votes to Obama in N.H.
New York Times Politics blog, Jan 4, 2008: A Richardson-Obama Deal? Some Caucus-Goers Thought So
Comments
Great article, and very thought-provoking. I think it’s too early to see this as Obama vs. McCain — they’ll both be in completely different situations, in terms of public message, by November — but Clinton and Edwards both have liabilities when it comes to independents.
I’m a good example of an independent voter, I think; I’m a Mississippian who voted for John Kerry for president in 2004, then Republican candidate Haley Barbour for governor in 2006. Clinton’s message, which does rely heavily on experience, also relies heavily on loyalty. There is the unmistakable vibe of entitlement in her campaign–that she’s earned this, that I owe her this. If this were a closed primary, that might be an effective strategy. But because it’s an open primary, in NH’s case with a likely 40% independent turnout, I think it will drive voters away.
And then there’s Edwards. I thought he was on fire in last night’s debate and his Iowa victory speech, and I’m beginning to get the Edwards appeal, but he is making a radical case about corporations. As I sit here on my La-Z-Boy recliner typing on my Apple laptop, wearing my Dockers pants and Hanes T-shirt, with a can of Diet Coca-Cola on my right…I’m not feelin’ the love from the Edwards campaign. And I think a lot of independents in the corporation-friendly state of New Hampshire will be similarly skeptical.
Re Richardson, I endorsed him as the best civil liberties candidate but I think it may be approaching time for him to drop out. He sounded very old last night, very tired, and he seemed to spend the entire debate reassuring Clinton that he wasn’t out to get her. He’d be a very strong VP or secretary of state; Obama/Richardson would be a fascinating ticket for many reasons, one being that we’d be going overnight from having had zero non-white candidates running for president, for the whole of U.S. history, to having a ticket where both candidates are people of color! It would be gutsy, but in some respects the absolutely perfect ticket–Obama needs Midwest support, and Richardson’s foreign policy credentials are mindblowing. I increasingly find myself thinking that Richardson is the obvious VP candidate, no matter who wins the nomination.
Too early. The primary is tomorow, Tom