I disagree with this respected news weekly, though, when the editorial staff opines, "Barack Obama leads in the head-to-head polls. But there are still seven months to election day, and Mr Romney has a fair chance of victory in November."
Given the present state of issues and related political theater, I believe that incumbent Obama has scant chance of losing to national political office neophyte Romney for four main reasons:
- 1. Women. In 2008, women comprised 53% of presidential voters; 56% of those women cast their ballots for Democrat Obama. Recent 2012 polls of the "gender gap" give President Obama a 16-point lead over Romney with women voters.
- 2. African-Americans. In 2008, African-American voters comprised 13% of those who cast presidential ballots; 95% of ballots cast by African-Americans were for Obama. "African-American women were the demographic with the highest percentage of electoral participation in 2008," per a Rutgers University professor.
By all accounts, African-American support for Obama remains sky-high and energized in 2012, despite dismal unemployment rates continuing within the community.
- 3. Hispanics. In 2008, Hispanic voters represented 9% of those who cast ballots for the presidency; 67% of those ballots were cast for Democrat Obama over Republican McCain.
While the Hispanic community is universally disappointed with President Obama's failure to make inroads in reforming U.S. immigration laws, Mitt Romney is stunningly unpopular with this demographic group because of his rigid opposition to liberalizing immigration for 12 million undocumented workers and their families. "A recent Pew survey found less than a quarter of all Hispanic voters would back Romney in a general election," per NPR.
- Conservative evangelical voters. It's no secret that Rick Santorum's social-conservative followers are not enamored of Mitt Romney. They don't trust that flip-flopper Romney really, truly agrees with them on abortion, access to birth control, gay rights, gay marriage and the like. And they are wary of his religious allegiance to Mormonism, which they deem to be a non-Christian cult.
In 2008, just 34% of all presidential election voters identified themselves as "conservative." Of those voters, 78% cast their ballots for Republican John McCain. Conservative evangelical voters certainly won't vote for Obama in 2012. But if an unenergized fraction of socially conservative Republicans... say 25%... don't vote in 2012, that would radically erode Mr. Romney's chances of winning the White House race.
Do the math. As is in April 2012, the numbers just don't add up for a Romney victory in November.
The game may be on, but the Democratic side has an ace pitcher in President Obama and crucial demographic advantages that make likely a lopsided victory in November. Barring a national catastrophe, I don't see this changing.