Republican Mitt Romney's resounding victory across all demographic groups in the Nevada caucus vote this past weekend portends warning signs for President Obama's path to reelection:
- In contrast to historical patterns for Republican candidates, Romney attracted a full 52% of all votes cast by women. Women comprise 49.5% of all residents in 2012 battleground state Nevada.
- Romney easily edged out his opponents in all age groups of Nevada caucus goers, except for voters under 30 years old, who cast 41% of ballots for libertarian Ron Paul. But Mr. Romney attracted a respectable 36% of that vote, too, a tally far, far ahead of
Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum.
Of all Nevada caucus age groups, Romney was strongest among senior citizen voters, winning 54% of their ballots. Voters 65 years old and over comprise 12% of Nevada's population.
- By a huge margin, Romney won the vote of every family-income level except the lowest-earning category, under $30,000 annually. Mr. Romney scored a whopping 53% of the vote by middle-class families earning $50,000 to $100.000.... a group deeply affected by Nevada's sky-high home foreclosure rate, the highest in the nation.
One promising Nevada take-away for the White House: Hispanic voters essentially ignored or boycotted the state Republican caucus vote. More than 26% of Nevadans are of Hispanic heritage, the nation's fifth highest state percentage, yet represented only 5% of caucus voters. The Hispanic vote will be key to winning swing state Nevada in 2012.
President Obama should be warned, however, by likely opponent Mitt Romney's startlingly massive victory in common-sense Nevada that Mr. Romney's bold message of holding a better plan for national economic prosperity is appealing to all age groups, to all educational levels, to both genders, and to almost all income groups.
To effectively answer Mr. Romney in the fall campaign, Democrat Obama absolutely must finally develop a smart, logical, believable plan to stem the national real-estate slump nightmare that caused tens of millions of home foreclosures.
President Obama's administration must also continue to preside over declining unemployment numbers throughout 2012, especially during the crucial summer months when employment data often slumps.
The Nevada Republican caucuses clearly demonstrated that Mitt Romney is rapidly developing into a formidable candidate to challenge President Obama, particularly on economic and prosperity issues. The President would be foolish to ignore the obvious warning signs that Mr. Romney's economic message is breaking through to Americans.
Next up this week: Republican caucuses in Maine, Minnesota, and key battleground state Colorado, and the Missouri primary election.
Comments
Hi Deborah –
Yes, but only 34,000 Republican voted in the Nevada primary, down a full 22% from 2008. As you’ve pointed out earlier, nobody is particularly enthused about the concept of ‘President Mitt Romney’. We’ll see if Obama can bridge the enthusiasm gap in Nevada.
BTW, “President Obama should be warned, however, by likely opponent Mitt Romney’s startlingly massive victory in common-sense Nevada that Mr. Romney’s bold message of holding better plan for national economic prosperity is appealing to all age groups, to all educational levels, to almost all income groups, to both genders.”
What better plan would that be? Mitt says that he has a better plan. However, I haven’t heard a single detail beyond,”because I say so”. I don’t find it particularly appealing.
Real, you write, “Mitt says that he has a better plan. However, I haven’t heard a single detail beyond,”because I say so”. I don’t find it particularly appealing.”
I didn’t say Mitt actually has a good plan.. I said “Romney’s bold message of holding a better plan for national economic prosperity is appealing to all age groups…” His political messaging is beginning to work.
Frankly, I suspect his actual economic plans would be similar to those of Meg Whitman, Republican gubernatorial candidate here in California. Her plans would have been a total disaster for unemployment and jobs creation… entailed privatization of just about everything, and incredible amounts of layoffs and services cutbacks. In fact, Whitman has long served as an advisor to Romney.
Good to know that Repub caucus attendance in Nevada was down. I couldn’t find that data.
You want to complain about the Repubs being a disaster for unemployment? Seriously? Using the average workforce participation rate under Bush the most commonly reported unemployment rate for the last two and a half years would have fluctuated between 11.3% and 12.2%. It would currently be 11.7% and would have risen in the last report instead of dropping. In order to make the unemployment rate drop the Obama Admin has done nothing but stop counting all of the unemployed.
And the Repubs would be a disaster for unemployment???
Hi Polemicist –
“And the Repubs would be a disaster for unemployment???”
Yes. Seriously. We don’t need to guess. Look across the Atlantic, where the British economy has stalled, just as soon as the Tory government implemented the austerity measures that Republicans favor. Not a pretty picture, eh?
Actually you DO need to guess. The British economy is not analogous to the US economy by a long shot. In addition, you have no idea what will happen should a Repub get elected to the presidency, which I doubt will happen at any rate. Contrary to all their whining now, the Dems in Congress will be no more accommodating to a Repub President than the Repubs are to Obama. Of course their ‘obstructionism’ will be completely justified. lol
Hi Polemicist –
“The British economy is not analogous to the US economy by a long shot.”
Really? It doesn’t have the benefit of having the world’s reserve currency. It’s more highly socialized than America. Other than that, I’d be hard pressed to find a better analog. Canada, perhaps. The British austerity model was based on the Canadian model. Unfortunately, the Canadian economy is tied so very closely to our own.
Even if it’s not an analog, holding all things constant, look at what has happened in Britain since 2010. The interest rate is 2%. Taxes have been cut. Social spending has been slashed. The deficit has been reduced. If Republican economic theories were accurate, their economy should be booming. The opposite has occurred.
“In addition, you have no idea what will happen should a Repub get elected to the presidency, which I doubt will happen at any rate.”
Agreed. However, that was never Deb’s point.