Just ahead of delivering the State of the Union Address, President Obama's reelection team revealed what they believe to be key 2012 battleground states. They did so by buying TV ad time and by strategically scheduling a handful of presidential appearances after this speech.
Interestingly, the six states that will see the first Obama reelection "limited duration" ads this week are:
- North Carolina, where Democrats have only won twice in North Carolina in 40 years, including Obama in 2008. Obama's saving electoral grace in the Tar Heel State was black voters, fully 23% of state voters, who cast 95% of their ballots for the President.
- Ohio, which boasts the sixth highest state population of labor union members. Obama won Ohio in 2008.
- Wisconsin, where livid Democrats just delivered over one million signatures to recall Tea Party-Republican Gov. Scott Walker
- Virginia, where Obama became the first Democratic presidential candidate in 40 years to win. The President's 2008 victory in the Old Dominion State was largely thanks to voters under 30 years old, 22% of all Virginia voters, who cast 60% of their ballots for Obama.
- Iowa, where Obama clobbered Republican John McCain in 2008, due, remarkably, to capturing 54% of the baby boomer vote (voters aged 45 to 64)
- Michigan, which boasts more than 800,000 labor union members, nearly 20% of the state work force. Obama defeated McCain in 2008 in Michigan by drawing 68% of voters under 30 years old (20% of state voters), and 97% of black voters (12% of state voters).
After his State of the Union Address, which is expected to focus on economic measures to support middle-class Americans, President Obama will travel to Michigan and Iowa, as well as to three western states with very large Hispanic populations: Arizona, Colorado and Nevada. Obama was the 2008 victor in Nevada and Colorado, although Arizonans voted for favorite son John McCain.
Revelation of these nine states as 2012 battleground arenas means that Barack Obama clearly plans to rely on the same coalition that elected him in 2008 .... blacks, Hispanics, labor union members, under 30-year-old voters... to propel him back to the White House for four more years.
The burning question is: are the disparate segments of Obama's 2008 political coalition all sufficiently happy to vote for a second term for the President?
My guess today is that black and labor union voters will wholeheartedly support Obama in 2012, and that Hispanics will lukewarmly support the President.
But young voters, particularly college students, are uniformly beleaguered by high unemployment and the exorbitant cost of a college education. Two issues college students historically care about... war and immigration reform... remain largely unresolved by President Obama.
Can President Obama win reelection by relying on the very same coalition that brought him triumphant victory in 2008? Possibly not. It all depends on the appeal and strength of his Republican opponent.
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