The last primaries of the 2010 election cycle are tomorrow, September 14, and again, the energy and excitement, although not necessarily momentum, are on the Republican side, per Obama advisors Axelrod and Plouffe.
Of the seven states holding contests tomorrow, Delaware's close Senate race most perfectly personifies the complicated 2010 partisan dance between the Republican and Democratic parties... complications sparked by exuberant conservative Tea Partiers and their success against establishment Republicans at the ballot box.
Democrat Chris Coons, County Executive of New Castle County which represents about 65% of Delaware's population, is cruising to easy victory, but few seem to care, and for good reason.
Both Democrats and Republicans are laser-focused on the Republican contest between moderate establishment candidate Rep. Mike Castle, popular 71-year-old former two-term governor and U.S. House member since 1993, and political commentator and Tea Party radical 41-year-old Christine O'Donnell.
Delaware insiders were so certain that well-liked Castle was a shoo-in for 2010 election to the Senate that Democrat Beau Biden, state Attorney General and son of Vice President Joe Biden, unexpectedly demurred from declaring his candidacy. Biden will presumably run at a future, more Democratic-friendly date.
Tea Party fever ignited, though, among extremist conservatives hellbent on upending establishment Republicanism, and the fever spread and infected more and more conservatives as Tea Party-backed Senate candidates scored a few surprise victories at the ballot box.
As a result, Old Christine, who suffered lopsided Senate race losses in 2006 and 2008, suddenly became New Christine, albeit with the same nutty, extremist views, when endorsements by Sarah Palin and her conservative brand of cronies brought new buzz to O'Donnell's campaign.
Why do Delaware Democrats give a fig about the feverish scuffle between Republicans Castle and O'Donnell? Because the polls are clear that Democrats have a great shot at retaining this Senate seat if Tea Party candidate Christine O'Donnell wins the Republican nomination. Per RealClearPolitics.com poll averages in early September:
- Republican Rep. Mike Castle leads Democrat Chris Coons by 11 points in the latest polls, but
- Democrat Chris Coons leads Republican Christine O'Donnell also by 11 points in the polls.
The reasons? Delaware Independents and moderate Republicans are repelled by O'Donnell's radicalism, and would apparently vote Democratic against her in November.
Today, Delaware Republicans are in turmoil, split by the rupture between experienced, establishment Republicans and zealous ultra-conservative idealogues.
Democrats are delighted, and cheering mightily for Old/New Christine to knock Republican Mike Castle out of the 2010 Senate race. And to hopefully smooth the way for Democrats to retain the Delaware Senate seat, a prospect that seemed quite unlikely only eight months ago when Beau Biden stepped out of the race..
If Democrats can duplicate the same political dynamics in Senate races in Nevada, Alaska, Kentucky, Colorado and Utah, the Democratic party will easily retain control of the U.S. Senate. And Obama advisors Axlelrod and Plouffe would be correct that electoral momentum, at least in one house of Congress, doesn't tilt Republican.
Check-out the latest on other primary elections set for tomorrow in Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island and Wisconsin, see:
- 2010 U.S. Senate Races - Who's Winning, Who's Losing
- 2010 Governors' Races - Who's Winning, Who's Losing
And check back here Wednesday for a wrap-up of 2010 primary election season.
(Photo of Christine O'Donnell with Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann, taken at a "pro-life gala" - Courtesy of the Christine O'Donnell for Senate Campaign)


Comments
Christine O’Donnell looks familiar. Was she a regular on “Politically Incorrect” way back when? If she’s the one I’m thinking of, damn, she’s a kook.
Volt –
Yes.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/09/15/flashback-gop-senate-cand_n_717936.html
Deborah –
You called it. Well done.