Despite gleeful prognostications by conservatives and short-sighted pollsters, I don't believe that 2010 will be a abnormally dismal year at the mid-year ballot box for Democrats.
Admittedly, I'm basing my belief in large part on political winds in my own part of the country, which is famed Republican-red Orange County, California, home to a handful of religious right mega-churches including Pastor Rick Warren's Saddleback Church.
But Orange County, California has always been an intriguing bellweather of Republican politics... and the winds are not blowing all that conservatively lately. Republicanism is not thriving and growing here in Disneyland's shadow.
Burgeoning Liberal Press
For one, the sole regional newspaper, The Orange County Register, a clarion voice of conservative libertarianism that refuses to publish even one liberal columnist, has floundered financially for several years now. On September 1, 2009, the Register's parent company, Freedom Communications, filed for bankruptcy. (The OC Register is Freedom's flagship newspaper.)
In contrast, the liberal alternative press in Orange County is flourishing, including the award-winning OCWeekly, as well as respected regional blog TheLiberalOC.com, for which I am a contributor.
And today, a press conference was held to announce formation of Voice of Orange County, a remarkable new non-profit investigative news site spearheaded by former state Sen. Joe Dunn, a Democrat, and funded wth "a $140,000 start-up grant from the Orange County Employees Association, the county’s largest union," per TheLiberalOC.com. Included on the board is Erwin Chemerinsky, Dean of the School of Law at University of California, Irvine.
Edging Toward Bipartisan Purple
There's also ample evidence at the ballot box. Reliably red Orange County, California almost made history in the 2008 presidential election by voting for Barack Obama. The final tally had Republican McCain receiving merely 50.9% of the vote. And many large sections of the county voted strongly for Democrat Obama.
Then there's Orange County's state Assemblyman Mike Duvall, the married, "family values" Republican who recently snickered explicitly into a hot mike about his sexual escapades with two lobbyists.
The great news is that in the last three elections for that seat, Democrat John MacMurray, a history/civics teacher, faithfully ran as a progressive, each time garnering a larger share of the vote. In 2008, MacMurray shocked conservatives with a record 45% of district votes.
Democrat MacMurray has thrown his hat into the special election for Duvall's Assembly seat against a bevy of Republicans... and the conservative Orange County Register was unprepared ths weekfor a myriad of inquires about liberal MacMurray.
Changed Electorate, Increased Democratic Ranks
Like thousands of counties across the U.S., Orange County, California has grown considerably more diversified ethnically over the past decade. Those changes have fueled a startling increase in the county's registered Independents and especially, in Democrats, which now number 514,000.
My point is this: in local neighborhoods across the U.S., I just don't see or sense earth-shaking dissatisfaction with elected Democrats or President Obama. Sure, town halls were filled with white, mainly elderly constituents, most urged on by Fox News loudmouths to angrily disrupt any confabs held by Democrats.
But angry white seniors are a minority in this country. Angry white seniors, and armed white "live free or die" nuts, won't decide U.S. elections in the 21st century (with a few local exceptions, I suppose).
In 2010, I admittedly see Democrats losing some House and Senate seats, as usually occurs when one party holds a sizable Congressional majority. But the 2010 mid-year elections won't be the unmitigated liberal catastrophe that conservatives pine for.
Americans admire President Obama, and on the whole, aren't markedly unhappy with Democrats. Since Obama's inauguration, Republicans have offered bitter vitriol and obstruction, and little-to-nothing constructive in solutions for our country, states, and counties.
And some Republicans, like California Assemblyman Mike "Spanky" Duvall or South Carolina Rep. Joe "Liar" Wilson have badly tarnished the image of conservatism on the national level.
Mark my words: Election year 2010 will be bipartisan purple.
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