I'm ignoring a half-dozen election night party invitations from D.C., New York, the Bay Area, Los Angeles and here in Republican-red Orange County, California, (where the Democratic party has registered 52,102 new members while Republicans have lost 6,172 registrants!).
It's simply far too early for Democrats to ponder celebrating victory, except, of course, for party planners, caterers and the requisite bartenders.
Polls Show Large Obama Lead
Yes, the poll I find to be most reliably objective and accurate, the Quinnipiac University poll, reported on October 23rd that Obama is soundly leading McCain in the vital swing states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.
And yes, the Real Clear Politics average of all major polls shows Obama resoundingly winning the electoral college count, as well as the popular vote count.
But polls can be wrong, and poll-taking methodology can be misguided and misleading.
Republican Faithfuls Voting for Obama
Yes, millions of Republicans... economic conservatives, centrists and moderates, libertarians, younger evangelicals... plan to vote for Barack Obama over the McCain/Palin ticket, or at least they say now that they will.
But things can change in eight days.
Yes, an astounding number of famed Republican party faithfuls have announced plans to support the Democratic presidential ticket... including members from the Republican stalwart Goldwater, Buckley, Eisenhower and Nixon families. Even First Daughter Jenna Bush hinted last spring that she might vote for Obama.
The most painful defection for Republicans may have been General Colin Powell's public endorsement last week of Barack Obama for president.
But most people say that endorsements by public figures have little impact on their vote.
Newspaper Endorsements Heavily Favor Obama
Per Editor & Publisher on October 26th, Sunday:
"The Obama-Biden ticket maintains its strong lead in the race for daily newspaper endorsements, by 160 to 59, an almost 3-1 margin..."Obama's lopsided margin... is in stark contrast to John Kerry barely edging George W. Bush in endorsements in 2004 by 213 to 205."
Most startling is the significant number of conservative-leaning newspapers that have endorsed Obama in 2008, including the Salt Lake Tribune and the 161-year-old Chicago Tribune, which has never before endorsed the Democratic presidential candidate.
Reports Editor & Publisher, "At least 35 papers have now switched to Obama from Bush in 2004, with just four flipping to McCain."
And today, the Anchorage Daily News endorsed Barack Obama over the Republican ticket which includes Alaska's governor, declaring that, "Sen. Obama is a clear choice."
But many critics maintain that newspapers endorsements don't mean much anymore.
Obama Supporters Shouldn't Rest Easy
I fully, unquestionably, completely, absolutely, wholeheartedly agree with Top 5 Reasons Obama Supporters Shouldn't Rest Easy, published last week by MoveOn.org:
- The polls may be wrong. - No one knows how racism may affect what voters tell pollsters—or what they do in the voting booth. And the polls are narrowing anyway...
- Dirty tricks. - Republicans are already illegally purging voters from the rolls in some states. Misleading flyers about the voting process have started appearing in black neighborhoods...
- October surprise. - The next McCain smear could dominate the news for a week. There could be a crisis with Iran, or Bin Laden could release another tape, or worse...
- Those who forget history. - In 2000, Al Gore won the popular vote after trailing by seven points in the final days of the race. In 1980, Reagan was eight points down in the polls in late October and came back to win...
- Landslide. - Even if Obama wins the White House, passing universal health care and a new clean-energy policy will be hard. We need the kind of landslide that will give Barack a huge mandate.
Take Action, Don't Take Victory for Granted
Accept an election night party invitation if you must, and make tentative plans to celebrate with all who have worked so diligently for Democrats to retake the presidency.
But take nothing for granted, Democrats.
Talk to your friends, family and neighbors. And go now... right now... to the Obama for America campaign website to learn about 5 ways you can volunteer in your own home or community!
Victory will take all of us!
- Related Reading
- Five Reasons Why McCain Will Lose the '08 Election
- Five Reasons Why Obama Will Win the '08 Election
(Getty Images photo credits: #1 taken on Oct 17, 2008 in Roanoke, Virginia: Joe Raedle; #2 taken on Oct 26, 2008 of an Obama rally attended by 100,000 in Denver, Colorado: Joe Raedle; #3 taken on Aug 28, 2008 at the conclusion of the Democratic Convention: Chuck Kennedy.)
Comments
i’m happy to say my family has all already voted…for obama (in florida, no less–and they’re all registered republicans). it’s hard not to be excited about the possible win. but i agree with the “don’t count your chickens before they’re hatched” sentiment. crossing my fingers for the next eight days. and volunteering, of course.
I agreed and I knew that it was crunch time right after the third debate concluded. That was why I donated time and money to ensure a victory.
Yes, the poll I find to be most reliably objective and accurate, the Quinnipiac University poll, reported on October 23rd that Obama is soundly leading McCain in the vital swing states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.
Just curious – why do you find this poll to be the “most reliably objective and accurate”?
To Dems:
I’ve watched the polls fairly closely since 2004, and especially in the
2006 election cycle and the 2008 Democratic primary race, and noted that
Qunnipiac seemed to get it right more often than others, and to track the trends correctly.
And many of the pollsters… Rasmussen, Gallup to name two… seemed
somewhat biased by hoped-for results. In some case, pollsters in 2006,
and in the 2008 Democratic primary races, were flat-out wrong.
I studied some statistics in grad schoool and have used stats in a past
professional life, and know how substantially someone’s personal judgment
can play in swaying the results. So I’ve watched carefully to know which
polls seem more reliably accurate.
Thanks for your question. Hope I’ve been helpful, my friend.