Obama Gains, Clinton Loses as Iowa Reallocates Delegates

For those thoroughly confused by campaign rhetoric and the media's messy and subjective coverage of the Obama-Clinton race for the nomination, here's where the Democratic Convention delegate count stands on March 17, 2008:

• Barack Obama: 1,409 pledged delegates and 217 superdelegates = 1,626 total delegates

• Hillary Clinton: 1,250 pledge delegates and 253 superdelegates = 1,503 total delegates

• Needed to win the nomination: 2,025 total delegates.

Over this past weekend, Sen. Obama gained 9 pledged candidates, and Sen. Clinton lost 1 pledged candidate, when Iowa Democrats re-caucused at their state convention, in order to reallocate John Edwards' delegates.

Also, since Super Tuesday February 5th, Sen. Obama has gained 47 new superdelegates, while Sen. Clinton has lost 7 superdelegates.

Remaining State Primaries and Caucuses
Pledged delegate counts for the remaining scheduled 2008 Democratic contests are:

• Pennsylvania on April 22 - 158 (expected to be won by Sen. Clinton)
• Guam on May 3 - 4
• North Carolina on May 6 - 115 (expected to be won by Sen. Obama)
• Indiana on May 6 - 72
• West Virginia on May 11 - 28
• Oregon on May 20 - 52
• Kentucky on May 20 - 51
• Puerto Rico on June 1 - 55
• South Dakota on June 3 - 15
• Montana on June 3 - 16

For Hillary Clinton to secure the party's presidential nomination, she needs to win 59% of all remaining unpledged delegates and superdelegates, which is 522 of the remaining 891 unpledged delegates (325 superdelegates and 566 committed delegates.) The common-sense odds of Sen Clinton bridging that gap are dim, and grew dimmer after the Iowa delegate reallocations.

Re-dos of the Michigan and Florido primaries, or negotiated agreements with those state parties that were stripped of their delegates, wouldn't change the necessary math by much.

Who Will Win: Obama or Clinton?
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, the country's top Democrat and Chair of the 2008 Democratic Convention, told George Stephanopoulos of ABC News on Sunday, March 16th:

"It's a delegate race. The way the system works is that the delegates choose the nominee...

"If the votes of the superdelegates overturn what's happened in the elections, it would be harmful to the Democratic party."

Thus, Speaker Pelosi is reaffirming the rules set by the Democratic party, and initially agreed to by all the presidential candidates, that pledged delegates, and not the popular vote, will select between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton for the 2008 White House race.

And Speaker Pelosi neither wants nor anticipates that superdelegates will override the decision of of the pledged delegates.

Under these circumstances and agreed-upon conditions, Barack Obama is the clear frontrunner as of mid-March 2008.

And it will be very difficult for Hillary Clinton to overtake Sen. Obama. But not yet mathematically impossible...