Super Delegate Insiders Will Not Select the Democratic Nominee: Three Most Likely Scenarios

The idea that the Democratic party's presidential candidate would be chosen by Super Delegates... elected party insiders of the highest order, with political debts to satisfy and political favors to grant... is a galling insult to the more than 15 million Democrats who've thus far cast their votes, the many thousands of hardworking party faithful volunteers, and all the boots-on-the-ground Democrats who thought that their efforts and good works mattered.

Yes, such a backroom power play would be both galling and deeply offensive.

Explains Tad Davine, a longtime Democratic strategist, in the New York Times:

" If the superdelegates determine the party’s nominee before primary and caucus voters have rendered a clear verdict, Democrats risk losing the trust that we are building with voters today. The perception that the votes of ordinary people don’t count as much as those of the political insiders, who get to pick the nominee in some mythical back room, could hurt our party for decades to come.

"The damage would be amplified if African-Americans or women, two of the party’s key constituencies, feel that a candidate who represents their most fervent hopes and aspirations is deprived of a nomination rightfully earned by majority support from voters."

But I firmly believe it won't come to that. DNC Chair Howard Dean, creator of the sensationally effective 50-state strategy, is too smart and too wedded to grassroot organizers. And party officials are acutely aware of the momentum-snuffing damage that could be inflicted upon the party chances in November.

Here's how I believe the Democratic party will select between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton:

Most Likely Scenario: Decision by the Voters
The most likely scenario is that one of the two candidates will prevail in the normally scheduled primary/caucus season.

As of now, that victor looks more likely to be Barack Obama, who won contests in Nebraska, Louisiana, Washington state and Maine over this past weekend by impressive double-digit margins, while Hillary Clinton won none. The races weren't even close:

• Nebraska - Obama 68% to Clinton 32%
• Louisiana - Obama 57% to Clinton 36%
• Washington - Obama 68% to Clinton 31%
• Maine - Obama 59% to Clinton 41%

Barack Obama has the contagious momentum, having now won 19 of the 29 state contests for the Democratic nomination. And Hillary Clinton's campaign does not have ascending momentum.

Primaries in Virginia and Maryland on Tuesday, Feburary 12, also appear to favor the senator from Illinois.

The Clinton campaign mantra is that they'll rise again with victory in big-states Texas and Ohio on March 4, but I've read analyses that show Texas to not be a slam-dunk for Sen. Clinton. (See Texas is No Clinton Firewall at DailyKos.)

Further, the Clinton camp is experiencing the telltale turmoil of a campaign under stress: a $5 million personal loan from Sen. Clinton to augment a funds shortfall, and on Sunday, Clinton canned her campaign manager, Patti Solis Doyle. Such are not the moves of a campaign smelling victory.

Respected Washington Post columnist David Broder recently observed:

" ... the longer the race goes on, the better the chances Obama will prevail as more Democratic elected officials and candidates come to view him as the better bet to defeat McCain in November."

Feels lately like this race has gone on forever. And Sen. Clinton's aura of inevitability evaporated weeks ago.

But Bill and Hillary Clinton are fighters and scrappy survivors. If the Clintons manage to salvage a dead heat with Sen. Obama, I believe the next step will be...

Second Most Likely Scenario: Retakes in Michigan and Florida
Florida and Michigan Democrats slated their primaries to take place ahead of the party's strategically planned schedule. As a result, the party stipped both states of voting delegates for the convention.

Likewise, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards all signed an agreement with the four early primary states... Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina... to not campaign in either Florida or Michigan, and to withdraw their names from the Michigan ballot.

Sen. Clinton reneged on the agreement, and did not withdraw her name from the Michigan ballot. As a result, running against no one, Clinton won 55% vs. 40% cast for "uncommitted." In Florida, Sen. Clinton won 50% to 33% for Sen. Obama after she mounted campaign efforts, sans personal appearances, in that state.

Now, with the delegate totals exceeedingly close, Hillary Clinton wants to ignore the agreements and count Michigan and Florida results, as is. (I won't vent on the obvious unfairness of this idea, other than to suggest you read the eloquent thoughts of Gray Kane, a Ph.D. candidate in the English department at the University of Mississippi.)

Here's the deal: the Democratic party, under Chair Howard Dean, doesn't want to exclude anyone... and especially not two sizable states such as Florida and Michigan that could sway the presidential election.

But the results, as is, are unfair. Thus, Florida and Michigan may redo their Democratic contests. But that scenario, too, is fraught with shortcomings.

Explained the Wall Street Journal on February 9, 2008:

" A do-over has political risks. It would mean tossing out 1.8 million primary ballots cast in Florida on Jan. 29 and 600,000 ballots cast in Michigan on Jan. 15, possibly angering voters who could take their revenge in November against the Democrats...

"National party leaders have said for weeks that the states could regain their delegate seats by holding new caucuses. But Mrs. Clinton's campaign is certain to fight that: She has done poorly in this winter's caucuses, and would have trouble raising the money to organize turnout in two big states."

Regardless of Clinton camp objections, Democratic caucuses are a probable corrective course for Michigan and Florida.

Barring selection of either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton as the Democratic presidential nominee via either the primary/caucus process or "do-overs" by the two renegade states...

Third Most Likely Scenario: A Negotiated Peaceable Solution
Should the established primary/caucus process not result in the selection of the party nominee, and should some reasonable accommodation to include Michigan and Florida not make clear the choice of Democratic voters... then I fully believe that DNC Chair Howard Dean and assorted party elders will find a way to counsel the two candidates to a peaceable solution.

Many fantasize about a "dream ticket" of Obama-Clinton or Clinton-Obama. The British newspaper The Guardian gushed:

" It was the hug that started the talking - Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama briefly setting aside the rancour of the debate to put their heads together and whisper. For many Democratic activists it was like a dream come true: Obama and Clinton - or Clinton and Obama, depending on one's loyalties - the two most exciting candidates in years running together for the White House.

"The idea of a so-called dream ticket gained greater currency this week when the Democratic national chairman, Howard Dean, suggested that some sort of deal would have to be reached to avoid an ugly showdown between the two camps at the convention next August."

I find an Obama-Clinton or Clinton-Obama ticket hard to imagine. While the two senators may respect each other, they don't seem to like each other much. And while their policies and liberal viewpoints are similar, their personal styles and characters are quite different.

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are not an easy mesh. But I suppose that politics have tossed together stranger bedfellows...

Of one thing in this deliciously messy political dilemma I am extremely confident: Democratic officials are too smart to allow 800 party insiders to callously devalue newly-energized Democratic voters across the country by playing "House of Lords" and handpicking the party's 2008 presidential nominee.

Democrats often find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in November general elections, but they usually don't make dumb decisions in intra-party matters.

Related Reading
What Are Super Delegates?
Obama vs. Clinton: Obama Has Slight Advantage After Super Tuesday

Roundhouse Rhetoric blog, by Gray Kane: Michigan, Florida and the Rest of Us
New York Times, Feb 10, 2008: Superdelegates, Back Off
Wall Street Journal, Feb 9, 2008: A Do-Over? Democrats' Fate May Ride on It
The Guardian, Feb 9, 2008: Hug keeps dream ticket hopes alive