The winds of fortune and good timing are at Barack Obama's back, as if he's fated by the gods for imminent political stardom in a United States starving for energized, freshly visionary leadership.
But his bid to be the Democrat's 2008 presidential nominee was helped, five days before Super Tuesday, by a strangely weak debate performance by Hillary Clinton in Los Angeles.
Famed Washington Post journalist Carl Bernstein summed it up best on CNN when he commented that Sen. Clinton had thoroughly convinced him that she would make the "best ever Health and Human Services Secretary."
And respected pollster Frank Luntz's on-air focus group of undecided Democratic voters clearly reflected that Sen. Obama "won" the final debate before Super Tuesday. (See here for the YouTube clip .)
As a culmination of:
- Sen. Obama's runaway victory in South Carolina;
- Obama's powerful annointing by Ted and Caroline Kennedy;
- Bill Clinton's whiny bad behavior on the campaign trail; and
- Sen. Clinton's smiling debate meltdown on January 31 into the "mommy" candidate...
... I believe that Super Tuesday voting will deliver enough delegates to Sen. Barack Obama to make him almost unstoppable by Bill and Hillary Clinton in their quest to return to the White House.
The Los Angeles "Debate"
As apparently intended, the CNN-Politico.com-Los Angeles Times Democratic debate at the glitzy Kodak Theater on January 31, 2008 was more conversation than actual block-knocking debate.
Wolf Blitzer's questions were surprisingly substantive, and engendered discussion, but little rancor, on health care, immigration and Iraq... the holy trinity of Democratic concerns in 2008.
We learned little new, but two important truths about the two candidates were elegantly, neatly showcased for Democratic voters to ponder again before casting their ballots on February 5, 2008:
Difference One - Hillary Clinton prioritizes universal health care above all other issues, and has devoted much of her adult life and career to securing health care for every American, and especially every child. She believes universal health care to be a core Democratic value, and will settle for no less when she is president.
Sen. Obama proposes a more nuanced, lower-cost plan that should ultimately cover as many Americans as do the Edwards and Clinton plans. But it's not government-mandated health care.
In short, via health care, Sen. Clinton portrays herself as more of a real Democrat than Sen. Obama. And as more of a "caring mommy" Democrat, too.
Difference Two - On both the Iraq War and Iran, Barack Obama provides a strong, contrasting alternative to the probable Republican nominee, John McCain, unabashed fan of the Iraq War and an architect of the so-called surge.
Of course, Hillary Clinton voted with John McCain in 2002 to support the Bush administration's plan to attack Iraq. And in 2007, she inexplicably voted with Senate Republicans again in racheting up their aggressive rhetoric against Iran.
Sen. Obama famously spoke out against the Iraq War in 2002 when it was unpopular to do so, and has remained a consistent critic of the Iraq conflict and occupation. (See Barack Obama's Stirring 2002 Speech Against the Iraq War.)
The issue of the Iraq War shows Barack Obama's judgment to be wise and sound, whereas Hillary Clinton's judgment and instincts were... well, wrong.
And most disturbingly at the Kodak Theater face-off, after more than a year of non-stop campaigning, Sen. Clinton still wouldn't and/or couldn't express regret over her 2002 vote for the Iraq War. And in contrast to Sen. Obama, she still wouldn't commit to removing all combat troops from Iraq if she's elected to the White House. (Did you notice her new catch phrase, "coercive diplomacy?")
In short, via the Iraq War, Sen. Obama portrays himself as more of a real Democrat . And as more of a "diplomacy-first" Democrat who regards war as a last, not first, resort.
And after 17 debate appearances, Sen. Clinton still stumbles and obfuscates on the subject of the Iraq war. (See Iraq War Spending and Statistics as of Jan 16, 2008 .)
Who Will Win the Democratic Nomination: Obama or Clinton?
We don't yet know whether Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic party's 2008 presidential nominee.
But I believe that Super Tuesday will bring us a lot closer to that answer, and that Barack Obama seems to have the momentum toward the party nomination.
One thing for sure: I fully agree with Washington Post columnist David Broder when he wrote this week:
" The New York senator could still emerge from the 'Tsunami Tuesday' voting with the overall lead in delegates, but she is unlikely to come close to clinching the nomination."And the longer the race goes on, the better the chances Obama will prevail as more Democratic elected officials and candidates come to view him as the better bet to defeat McCain in November. "
(Photo taken on January 31, 2008: David McNew/Getty Images)
Related Reading
2008 Presidential Primary Calendar
Can Obama and Ted Kennedy Chip Away at Clinton's Latino Support?
Why Obama Won Big in South Carolina: The Vision Thing
Comments
Jon Stewart from The Daily Show made an excellent observation yesterday regarding Obama and McCain. Wouldn’t it be interesting if those two recieved the nomination? Neither of them are products of their party, neither of them conduct themselves as “professional politicians”, and both are willing to take principled stances on an issue regardless of what’s popular (the Iraq War is great example), unlike their current rivals who seem to flip-flop on a regular basis.
Neither of the candidates are perfect, but I am convinced that both of them would be fantastic presidents. If it boils down to those two, deciding who to vote for is going to be very difficult.
Yes, I heard Jon Stewart make that astute observation. Americans are so hungry for honesty and authenticity, because we’re so tired of being lied to.
Personally, I’m not a John McCain fan, most importantly because of his stance on Iraq and Iran. I also find him to be irritatingly patronizing to people who disagree with him. Of course, I greatly respect his service to our country.
But I know many, many people who might find this a difficult yet exciting choice.
A McCain-Obama match would divide along age lines, I fear, and perhaps along race lines, too. I have absolutely no prediction as to who would be the victor.
ugh, i don’t know. after 17 debate performances, barack obama still stumbles over “er” and “uh” quite a bit. he looked down his nose at hillary the whole time and honestly bored the crap out of me last night.
i’ve only once seen barack obama deliver the goods in terms of what he has to say about the issues and why people seem so ga-ga over him. maybe i’m on a different planet or something, but i still see hillary as the far superior, substantive candidate ready to actually DO things, while obama is busy giving pep talks.
Kim-
It all depends on the eye of the beholder, as the old saying goes. I think that we’re all so familiar with Clinton and Obama, that to a large degree, we see what we want to see.
That’s why I quote Carl Bernstein, and a pollster’s focus group of undecideds. It’s hard to recognize objectivity anymore. I probably no longer am.
For me personally, the difference between the two is their histories and continuing attitudes on the Iraq War. I feel very strongly about this.
What fascinates me is how strongly Obama appeals to so many young people that I know…. how he’s drawing the previously unpolitical into the Democratic party.
Hillary Clinton could still be the nominee. And if she is, she will be dazzling. And part of me hates for this hardworking woman to miss her chance at the White House.
Deborah
Obama won? Sorry, I and a lot of other people DON’T think so. So, when did about.com become a pundit blog? How about some FAIR reporting without the opinion?
yeah, and ron paul did the same on the republican side. i don’t think that means he deserves to be president.
i think there are a lot of wonderful things about barack obama. he makes inspiring speeches. he says a lot of things about hope and change that really make sense. and i think it’s great for the 18-29s to have a role model like him, someone who’s giving voice to youthful angst about wanting to change things. things are really messed up. they should change.
but politics in the real world is a slow science. things always do change through politics, but it’s something that always takes awhile. it’s about incrementals and comprimise. i think it’s silly to believe obama will get in office and suddenly it’ll all be sunshine and daffodils. i don’t trust that he gets how the political system works in washington. and i’m not talking about the negatives that he focuses on. there are a lot of positives, a lot of special interests, for example, that are fighting the good fight for the environment and women’s rights, etc. i was against the war before it started, too–very, very much so. i was upset with clinton’s vote, and still am. but, i have a hard time seeing obama’s stance as substantial here. he wasn’t there to vote on it, and as soon as he got there to vote on it, he voted in the same line that clinton did. so the distinction seems almost irrelevant.
i have a lot of very substantial issues with obama, and i know i’m not alone. and i’m certainly not alone with my fellow under 35 folks. so it frustrates me to constantly read about how the under 35s are overwhelmingly for obama. i don’t know who they’re polling.
i think inspiring hope is essential in a community organizer, an activist. but that’s different from a president. he’s just not showing he has what it takes to answer the hard questions and really do something about the hard issues. there’s a vast difference between having the good idea and executing it. and i really believe that’s the difference between our two candidates. one has a knack for the great ideas. the other has a knack for doing the hard work.
again, i think they’d be a stellar team. and i’m so, so glad that our choice for president is between the two of them. i’ll honestly be happy either way, although i feel very strongly one way over the other.
but, for the record, and i know i’m not alone on this, i find hillary clinton to be a very inspirational person. i’ve seen her speak and i left inspired and full of hope for the future. it’s odd to me that anyone would suggest that there’s only one candidate in this race that can inspire people.
and one more thing–it was weird to have a debate at the kodak theater. strange venue. ok, enough from me
i don’t think there are many people that are unbiased at this point, deb. thanks for the forum.
You have been consistent this season. Consistently wtong.
Kim-
Sen. Clinton delivered an unbelievably powerful and uplifting speech at a rally today (Feb 2) at Cal State Univ, Los Angeles. I’ve never seen her more effective or inspiring. The all-age, all-ethnicities crowd numbered in the tens of thousands, and they were electrified. The crowd was as excited as any at Obama rallies. And Sen. Clinton had dozens of the top California leaders there, supporting her.
Yes, we all do seem to generalize too much: women should vote for Hillary. under 40s and African-Americans should vote for Obama, etc. We Americans are too individual and independent to be so easily classified.
California is so energized, it’s amazing. I’ve never seen anything like it.
And tomorrow, Oprah, Caroline Kennedy and Michelle Obama will hold a rally at UCLA.
Thanks for your comments, Kim. I share your emotions, and intrepidation, about all of this.
Folks have been asking me why I endorsed Obama–I actually endorsed him personally months before I declared Bill Richardson to have a better civil liberties platform.
I wrote this to sum up why:
Friends, Romans, countrypersons –
I think Barack Obama should be the next President of the United States because:
- He comes primarily from an activist background rather than a political background. No president in my lifetime has taught constitutional law, much less for over a decade; no president in my lifetime has served as a full-time civil rights attorney, much less for over a decade; no president in my lifetime has transitioned so seamlessly from the world of issue activism to the world of politics.
- He energizes a new bloc of voters. When Ronald Reagan won in 1980, carrying 49 states, it wasn’t just a victory for Reagan–it was a victory for the four million evangelical voters who showed up in 1980, and have played a crucial role in Republican victories ever since. Now Barack Obama, to a degree far greater than that of Howard Dean four years ago, has energized young progressive voters to show up at the polls–voters from the post-second wave, post-desegregation era, voters who represent a generation that is as skeptical of government as it is radically inclusive of all persons, regardless of race, gender, sexual orientation, or national origin. And just as the Reagan Revolution changed politics for the previous generation, the Obama Revolution can change politics for the next generation.
- He has the most humane approach to universal health care. Mandates are great in theory, but look at what’s happening in Massachusetts–where people are paying punitive fines willingly because they can’t afford health insurance. If universal health insurance ever loses some of its subsidy funding under a future president, then a universal health insurance mandate fine will amount to a tax on the poor.
- He has the most humane approach to Iraq. As someone who has written full-time for eight years, I know a little bit about deadlines. And I know that open-ended deadlines are the worst kinds of deadlines to have, because then nobody knows when the project will actually come to an end. If Obama says 16 months, come rain or shine, then the U.S. government and Iraqi government and the Iraqi people know when U.S. forces will be leaving, and appropriate measures can be taken to ensure that everybody who needs to be evacuated can be evacuated on schedule. If Hillary Clinton says maybe less than a year, maybe much longer, then how will charities know when to evacuate their workers? How will private contractors? How will the Iraqi government know when they will have to have their own forces ready to take over? If we are going to have an intentional withdrawal policy–and I think that point can be debated–then the only way to enact that policy is to establish a clear timetable for withdrawal.
- He has the most humane approach to immigration. One issue that has come up recently is his unpopular stance in support of immigrant driver’s licenses. While the idea of giving driver’s licenses to undocumented immigrants may sound radical at first, consider the alternative: If undocumented immigrants don’t have driver’s licenses, then they can’t get auto insurance. If they can’t get auto insurance, then all of the safety benefits that come with universal auto insurance are eliminated for millions of people, which doesn’t do anyone any favors. If undocumented immigrants are here and driving (and they are on both counts), then licenses are a must.
I know that not everybody will agree with me on this endorsement, and I respect that. We’re fortunate to have an exceptionally strong crop of candidates this year. But I don’t believe in doing things quietly, so this is my characteristically public endorsement of Barack Obama as the 44th President of the United States. Here’s hoping.