Can Obama and Ted Kennedy Chip Away at Clinton's Latino Support?

Here in my Southern California home, I've met innumerable immigrants-turned-U.S. citizens... Latinos and Asians, in particular... who probably know little about Sen. Ted Kennedy and even less about Caroline Kennedy, daughter of the 35th President, who was assassinated 44 years ago.

And the name of Toni Morrison, the revered Nobel laureate author and Clinton confidant who also endorsed Sen. Obama today, would draw blank stares from new citizens unfamiliar with the U.S. cultural landscape of the 1960s through 1990s.

For this reason, today's landmark endorsements of Barack Obama's presidential candidacy by Sen. Ted Kennedy, the respected dean of Senate Democrats and iconic fighter for social justice, and his niece, Caroline Kennedy, keeper of her late father's legacy, are NO guarantee that Sen. Obama will win the party's 2008 nomination.

Cataclysmic Endorsements for Under 40s, Baby Boomers, Liberal Idealists
I, a white, well-educated, middle-class, baby-boomer liberal, wept when I read Caroline Kennedy's touching, intimate endorsement... her first presidential endorsement since 1980:

" I have never had a president who inspired me the way people tell me that my father inspired them. But for the first time, I believe I have found the man who could be that president... "

And, naturally, my spirit soared with standardbearer Ted Kennedy's ringing words, praising Sen. Obama and officially, finally, emotionally passing to him the precious mantel of John and Bobby and Martin...

Today, liberal idealists and baby boomers swooned at the Kennedy family blessing of Obama's candidacy.

And voters under age 40, disgusted by the divisive politics of smear-and-fear, have long comprised the base of Sen. Obama's most ardent supporters. Indeed, Caroline Kennedy noted that her three teenage children first brought the Illinois senator to her attention...

The Impact of Immigrant Voters
But all Democratic voters are not young, or liberal baby boomers, or even Kennedy devotees.

The AFP newsservice reported two weeks ago:

" A record one million immigrants sought US citizenship last year so they could vote in the 2008 presidential election, overwhelming the processing offices, Hispanic groups said on Monday...

"Immigrants from Latin America represent the biggest ethnic minority in the United States -- some 45 million people. They could wield decisive weight in November's election, especially in largely Hispanic states such as Florida, Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado."

And the Public Policy Institute of California reported in 2004:

" Among states, California had the second largest share of Asians who voted in the 2000 presidential election (8%) but trailed Hawaii by a large margin, where 68 percent of the voting population was Asian.

"Latinos cast 15 percent of California’s total votes in the 2000 election, placing it third among states – behind New Mexico (29%) and Texas (18%) and tied with Arizona (15%)." Of course, the U.S. citizen population of Latino voters has swelled considerably since 2004.

The Fight for the Immigrant Vote
Both Bill and Hillary Clinton have always held strong appeal to the Latino communities, which are comfortable with strong female leaders. In fact, Latino voters in the Nevada caucus resoundingly opted for Clinton over Obama 64% to 26%.

Further, the Clinton campaign claims the loyalty of some of the country's top Latino leaders: Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-CA), and especially, Dolores Huerta, the revered co-founder with Cesar Chavez of the United Farmworkers.

And let's be brutally honest: at least in Los Angeles and the Southwest, tensions have been high for decades between the African-American and Latino communities. (See the Los Angeles Times article, Roots of Latino/Black Anger.)

All things considered, Latino voters would normally be expected to be more attracted to a Clinton presidential candidacy than that of a fortysomething African-American intellectual with an Ivy League education.

Can Obama and Kennedy Chip Away at Clinton's Latino Support?
Enter Sen. Ted Kennedy, passionate champion of immigration reform legislation, as well as of equal opportunites and justice for all. Sen. Kennedy's brother, Robert, famously marched with Latino icon Cesar Chavez and the farmworkers, and the senator is a great friend of heavily Latino labor unions.

Sen. Kennedy will actively campaign this next week with Sen. Obama in California and other Super Tuesday states, when he will specifically target Latino and union voters.

Additionally, as the San Francisco Chronicle points out today, Sen. Obama is attempting to differentiate himself from Sen. Cllinton on a variety of issues of vital importance to Latino voters, including immigration reform and driver's licenses for illegal immigrants.

But will Barack Obama's latter-appeal to immigrant voters be enough for him to claim a large portion of delegates in the larger, multi-ethnic Super Tuesday states of California, New York, Arizona, Oklahoma, Colorado and New Mexico?

The overriding question is: in the large Super Tuesday states, can Hillary Clinton hold onto the powerful coalition of Latinos and older white women that lifted her to narrow victory in Nevada?

Or will Barack Obama, accompanied by the great liberal lion of the Senate, Ted Kennedy, chip away enough of Hillary Clinton's coalition to stop her from winning the Democratic party nomination?

My guess?

I'm genuinely leery of the Obama campaign's ability to win a substantial portion of the Latino vote away from Hillary Clinton. I believe he'll need to draw heavily from every demographic group, other than Latinos, in order to win the presidential nomination.

But I think that's very possible. Maybe even probable after today.

(Photos taken on January 28, 2008: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Related Reading
Hillary Melds New Coalition to Narrowly Win Nevada Popular Vote
Cesar Chavez, Latino Champion of Civil Rights
2008 Presidential Primary Calendar

New York Times op-ed by Caroline Kennedy, Jan 27, 2008: A President Like My Father
San Francisco Chronicle, Jan 28, 2008: Obama takes big risk on driver's license issue