Hillary Melds New Coalition to Narrowly Win Nevada Popular Vote

Although Hillary Clinton won the Nevada caucus popular vote by a small margin over Barack Obama, news reports are mixed as to which of the two Democratic leaders garnered more convention delegates.

Under any scenario, though, neither won more than one delegate more than the other, which leaves Clinton and Obama either tied in the convention delegate count, or Obama slightly ahead.

Nevada Democratic officials predict that it will take weeks to finalize caucus count totals. As a volunteer manning the Nevada Democratic party hotline for caucus leaders of the 500+ precinct locations, I would guess that it could take weeks, even months, to sort out the final tally for Nevada delegates.

Why Hillary Won the Nevada Caucus Popular Vote
Regardless of the delegate count, Sen. Hillary Clinton narrowly won the harsh battle for Nevada's popular vote by melding together a passionate coalition that could sweep her to victory in California and other crucial western states: Latinos and older women.

According to MSNBC exit polls, only 15% of Nevada caucus-goers were Latino, but they voted for Clinton over Obama 64% to 26%. And women, who were 59% of Nevada's caucusgoers, voted for Clinton over Obama 51% to 38%.

In charge of marshalling the Latino vote for Sen. Clinton is top advisor, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who was present and constantly being interviewed by press at Nevada Democratic party caucus headquarters on caucus day.

I had the chance opportunity to briefly chat with Mayor Villaraigosa after the caucus, and he pointed out that Sen. Clinton won seven of nine of the controversial at-large caucus locations held in casino ballrooms. Such locations were heavily Latino and primarily female.

(I predict that if/when President Hillary Rodham Clinton takes the White House reins, watch for the Los Angeles mayor to move to D.C. as valued member of her administration.)

A personal observation... I was startled by the volume of older white women at Nevada caucus central who giddily celebrated Hillary's victory. Truthfully, they were elated... hugging each other, some crying, many openly referring to their sisterhood with her and each other. Hillary Clinton has clearly touched the raw feelings of women of her generation.

Exit Polls Were Not All Good News for Clinton
The exit polling data yields some trends, though, that could portend serious trouble for the Clinton campaign in future primaries:

• Non-white men voted for Obama over Clinton 55% to 39%.

• Black caucusgoers voted for Obama over Clinton a whopping 83% to 14%.

• Sen. Obama easily won the votes of those under age 44: voters age 18 to 29 supported Obama over Clinton 59% to 33%, and age 30 to 44, 46% to 38%.

• 50% of caucusgoers cited "Can bring about needed change" as the #1 desired "personal quality" in a candidate. Of that 50%, 60% voted for Obama, and 29% for Clinton.

The Recession Factor
One significant item in the Nevada exit polls that highlights a positive for the Clinton campaign as the U.S. descends into economic recession: 50% of caucusgoers listed "the economy" as the most important issue facing our country. Of that 50%, 49% voted for Clinton while 40% voted for Obama.

As so many Nevadans (including an aging Filipino cabdriver who raved about strong women leaders, including many elected to lead the Philippines) told me on caucus day, the U.S. economy was vibrant and strong under Bill Clinton. They have faith that Hillary, with Bill as her personal advisor, can again restore the economy to health.

Mysterious, Last-Minute Robocalls
Any honest discussion of Hillary's triumph in Nevada must be footnoted with this reality-check:

The Clinton candidacy in Nevada apparently was not hurt by a nasty and mysterious, last-minute robocall campaign that, per Politico.com, " criticizes Obama for taking money from special interests while repeating, four times, his rarely used middle name: 'Hussein.'" (Here's Politico.com's link to an MP3 recording of that call.)

Which again begs the question I posed last week: Is Hillary Playing Fair?

(Photo credits: #1 taken in Missouri on January 19, 2008 after the Nevada caucuses: Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images; #2 taken on May 20, 2007, the day that Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa announced his endorsement of Sen. Hillary Clinton for the presidential race: J. Emilio Flores/Getty Images)

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