Roll of the Dice: Why Obama, Clinton, Edwards Each Might Win Nevada

In a hotly contested election as unpredictable, and as crafty, as a Las Vegas game of blackjack, Nevada Democrats will caucus on January 19, Saturday, to decide their choice for the party's 2008 presidential nominee.

The Nevada Democratic caucus result is vitally important in momentum and headline grabbing, but not in terms of actual delegates.... 33 to be allocated among Obama, Clinton and Edwards, as versus over 1,000 delegates up for grabs on February 5, Super Tuesday.

Most polls show a two-way tie between Obama and Clinton in Nevada, and a few reflect a three-way tie. A newly-released Reuters-Zogby poll gives a small edge to Sen. Clinton... but in my view, that's unreliable, given the myriad of unknown factors.

Both the Obama and Clinton campaigns are publicly downplaying expectations, and praise the other's prospects for Nevada win.

Changes in the Nevada Caucus
By far, the most significant change to the Nevada vote is in caucus locations. Democrats will vote in more than 500 neighborhood precincts, a substantial increase from past years, required due to vastly increased interest in this presidential election. (Nevada caucuses were always before held long after the nominee was known.)

And to accommodate casino workers, who work 24/7 shifts, six at-large precincts will be held for the first time in enormous Las Vegas casino ballrooms. Absolutely no one knows how many voters will appear at these at-large locations.

I'm flying to Las Vegas early Saturday to participate in the central counting and compilation of the votes from each of the Nevada Democratic caucus locations. While the Nevada Democratic party seems well-prepared and organized, anything can happen. I promise an insider's report when I return from Sin City.

Why Obama, Clinton and Edwards Each Might Win in Nevada
Here are logical reasons why each of the three remaining Democratic contenders might place first in the Nevada caucus on January 19, 2008. Keep in mind, of course, that in large part, voting isn't all that logical...

Barack Obama

• Won the endorsement of the 60,000-member Culinary Workers Union Local 226, in Las Vegas, widely regarded as the most influential and organized union in Nevada
• Won the Democratic endorsements of the two major Nevada newspapers
• His motivating message of hope and a better day, and solid economic proposals newly rolled-out in Nevada
• Reportedly has established good rapport with the all-important Latino community in Nevada, especially with humor
• As he has across the country, Obama has a very effective on-the-ground organization
• May be the beneficiary of casino workers' anger at Clinton's failed (and politically dumb) attempt to shutdown convenient, at-large voting precincts

Hillary Clinton

• Several union endorsements, particularly from teachers
• Endorsement by the Las Vegas Sun newspaper
• Strong support within the Culinary Workers Union Local 226, which is 57% female
• Has long enjoyed a strong, child-oriented appeal to the Latino community
• Bill Clinton has historically been popular in Nevada, and won the state in both his presidential elections
• Policies, policies, policies to help niche groups in Nevada: immigration, subprime mortgage assistance and more.

John Edwards

• Has strong ties to all unions, which are major political forces in Nevada politics
• His message of sharp populist anger should strike a chord in Nevada, which has the highest foreclosure rate in the country

Money and time, though, may be running short for John Edwards' presidential ambitions. If he finishes a distant third in Nevada, and has similarly poor results in South Carolina on January 26, John and Elizabeth Edwards' populist crusade for the White House may be over for 2008.

Reports a Seattle newspaper columnist covering the Nevada caucus:

" Edwards soldiers on. He is trying, in three days of campaigning before Saturday's Nevada caucuses, to counter the impact of 13 visits by Obama to the Silver State, and a year's worth of non-stop attention by Bill and Hillary Clinton....

"But Edwards' bold populist talk is fraying around the edges. The stump speech on Wednesday was noticeably shorter than orations a month ago in down-on-their-luck Iowa manufacturing towns. It contained few references to Nevada....

" A touch of anger was apparent later when Edwards fielded a few press queries. 'If you are to believe the national media, the Democratic race consists of just two candidates,' he said."

In this case, the national media might be correct.

(Photo: Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

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