What's Next after Seniors, Older White Women Lift Clinton to N.H. Victory?
Seniors, white women over age 40, and non-churchgoers lifted Sen. Hillary Clinton to dramatic victory in the New Hampshire on January 8, 2008. Per MSNBC exit poll data, these Clinton supporters made up their mind earlier than last month.
And Barack Obama lost his risky New Hampshire gamble to attract enough independent voters to counteract the Clintons' great popularity in the Granite state.
While Obama did draw a sizeable independent vote, a lion's share of independents flocked to the old lion himself, Republican John McCain, who handily won the same primary in 2000 over George W. Bush.
Per the MSNBC exit polls, Hillary Clinton won the vote among registered New Hampshire Democrats over Barack Obama by a wide margin of 43% to 32%, while Obama bested Clinton in the independents vote by 40% to 34%. In Iowa, Obama relied on independents for his primary win, since he and Clinton tied among Democrats.
What This Means for Obama
What this means is that Sen. Obama is playing a dangerous game as he attempts to secure the 2008 Democratic presidential nominaton: so far, he's not been the clear first choice among Democrats.
Most remaining primary elections between now and February 5, when 22 states cast their lots, don't allow independent voters to cross over party lines. Without a bigger slice of the Democratic pie, Obama can't win the party nomination.
Deep inside the MSNBC polling data lies an intriguing insight about John Edwards voters: they have a considerably more favorable opinion of Barack Obama than Hillary Clinton. If John Edwards, who finished a distant third place, were to drop out of the race, Obama's position should be strengthened among party faithful.
Alas, though, Edwards told his supporters last night that he plans to continue his crusade "to the convention. "
What This Means for Hillary Clinton
Sen. Clinton is also playing a dangerous game if she believes that garnering Democratic votes from white voters (Iowa voters were 93% white, New Hampshire 95% white) is the same as vote getting in multi-ethnic states as South Carolina, Nevada, California and New York.
Another danger to Hillary Clinton's candidacy among Democrats is the vast gender divide: while Clinton easily won the female vote in New Hampshire, she decisively lost the male vote to Obama by a margin of 40% to 29%
The only reason that Obama's lopsided male vote didn't offset Clinton's lopsided female vote is that New Hampshire voters in the Democratic primary were 57% women and only 43% men. In essence, women turned out for Sen. Clinton, and men turned out for Sen. McCain in the New Hampshire primary.
Hillary Clinton's campaign staff needs to remember that primary elections will not always be composed almost entirely of white women voters over 40 years old. (Women 18 to 39 years old voted in droves for Sen. Obama.)
A second New Hampshire anomaly that favored Sen. Clinton: of the 33% of Democratic voters who attend church "a few times a year," 44% voted for Clinton and only 30% voted for Obama. Of the 14% who said they attend church "once a week," 38% voted for Obama and 31% for Clinton. In contrast, churchgoing Iowans heavily supported Obama.
A third anomaly that favored Sen. Clinton in New Hampshire: 67% of Democratic voters were 40 years old or more, and 44% were 50 years old or more, which is an unusually older voting population. Voters 65 year old and up voted for Clinton over Obama by a margin of 48% to 32%.
In contrast, 41% of Iowa voters were 44 years old or younger, and voted with great solidarity for Obama. Older voters tend to support Clinton, while younger voters most support Obama.
Where the Race for the Democratic Nomination Stands
As of January 9, 2008, the delegate count among Democratic presidential candidates is:
- Barack Obama - 25
- Hillary Clinton - 24
- John Edwards - 18
Sen. Clinton's stunning loss in the Iowa primary clearly caused her to sharpen her campaign, and made her a substantially better, more appealing candidate on the stump.
Likewise, Obama's surprise loss in New Hampshire should cause him to rethink his campaign strategies and retool his rhetoric to broaden his appeal within the party and to seniors and middle-aged women.
The big winner after Iowa and New Hampshire is the Democratic party: we have two strong, viable, exciting candidates, either of whom would be an outstanding President of the United States.
And we have a genuine, nail-biting, cliff-hanger of a political horse race that's resulting in a thorough and healthy discussion of the issues, ideas and daunting challenges that face Americans today.
Frankly, I wouldn't have it any other way...
(Photo taken on Jan 8, 2008 in New Hampshire of Clinton supporters: Chris Hondros/Getty Images)
Related Reading
Choosing Between Obama and Clinton: 18 Thoughts
Profile of Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York
Profile of Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois
"I Found My Own Voice" - Clinton Wins New Hampshire (Women's Issues)
2008 Presidential Primary Calendar (Current Political Events)
Comments
As an independent voter in California, I am only allowed to vote in the
Democratic primary, and I think I’m going to put my vote towards Clinton.
She’s more experienced and I like her policies more than Obama.
go hillary go! i’m so stoked to see that there’s an actual substantive race going on, that voters are turning out in droves and steering this nomination process!! if obama wants to appeal to the older set, i’d think he needs to stop making pep talks and start addressing the issues, and vice-versa for hillary with the younger bunch. as one of the under-40s, though, i and all my under-40 white female friends will be caucusing for hillary when the time comes in washington state. i have a feeling this race is going to be close enough that our washington state vote might actually matter.
i want to add, too, that it makes me happy to see hillary adjusting her campaign to better represent the people who support her, and the democratic party. how great would it be to have a president who listens to the people she represents, and adjusts her plan of action so that it is more in line with the people who put her in office. it’s still her race to lose, as far as i’m concerned. nonetheless, all three of the dem frontruners are making each other better candidates. i look forward to a competent dem president getting sworn in a year from now!