Late Iowa Buzz: Edwards Up, Obama & Clinton Steady and Grim

Late night on December 29, Bill Richardson's campaign sent an elated email to supporters, exulting that the newest insider polls in Iowa showed his campaign gaining last-minute caucus voters, and the Obama and Clinton campaigns losing support.

And Joe Biden emailed that he racked up three more Iowa legislators' endorsements, bringing his total to 21, more than any other Democrat.

In the last few days, I've received innumerable invites to campaign and/or party in Iowa and Nevada for John Edwards, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Bll Richardson and Joe Biden. (I hear less and less lately from the staffs of Chris Dodd and Dennis Kucinich... Could Iowa be the end of their 2008 quests for the White House? )

The Democratic race in Iowa is so close and changeable, and campaign activity so frenetic, that no political pundits have made definitive predictions as who will win. And I doubt any do firmly prognosticate Iowa.

Bill Richardson and Joe Biden both hope to "shock the world" on January 3, but are extreme long-shots to place n the top three. From all I hear, see and read, here's where the frontrunners' campaigns stand:

John Edwards
Sen. Edwards' closing message continues to be one of righteous populist anger, and seems to be hitting homeruns with Iowans upset over health care, the Iraq War, No Child Left Behind and the corrosive influence of lobbyists and Corporate America.

I do wonder, though, about the impact of Edward's passionate fury on Iowans' renowned taste for niceness.

The Edwards campaign cleverly distributed to Iowa caucus-goers 100,000 free-of-charge copies of an 80-page book, John Edward's Plan to Build One America, which focuses on middle-class working families, universal health care, college affordability and veterans.

Several polls show Edwards up a meaningless point or two over Obama and Clinton. What's important is that John and Elizabeth Edwards are buoyant and energetic, and exuding optimism and genuine excitement. Such magnetic exuberance is commonly contagious to voters, and seems to be working its magic in Des Moines and beyond.

One bittersweet note: during a C-SPAN interview over the weekend with Elizabeth Edwards, she looked unusually worn. One can only wonder and worry about the status of her brave battle with breast cancer.

Barack Obama
Sen. Obama is remaining true to his CHANGE message in the final campaign stretch in Iowa. As Obama barnstorms around the state, he continues to draw record crowds, dazzled by his rock-star status.

Word has it that Obama crowds are usually twice as large as those for Edwards and Clinton... but sometimes, half as vocally enthusiastic. Michelle Obama is also travelng the state, armed with her stern, uplifting message of family, community and ethics.

The Obama campaign in Iowa has appealed most strongly to the under-40 vote and to Independents and first-time caucus-attenders. Common wisdom is that an uusually heavy caucus turn-out on January 3 favors Barack Obama, who could clinch victory.

But if college students and young adults don't turn-out in droves, Obama could place second or third. Problem is... college students and young adults are the most notoriously unreliable voting group in terms of showing up to cast votes.

Another bright spot for the Obama campaign is its extraordinary organization in Iowa and all primary states. If any campaign organization can get out the vote, it's the Obama '08 staff and thousands of motivated volunteers (who seem to call my cell phone almost daily lately... )

Over the past weekend on the stump, the senator was displaying his somber side, and spoke with a smattering of weariness, as is occasionally his wont. And his Mr. Nice Guy image is in tatters due to skirmishes with the Clinton and Edwards campaigns.

As I warned ten months ago when Obama spoke at the DNC Winter meeting, "The senator's staff needs to remind him that dour rarely wins the day, much less the election. "

Hillary Clinton
Accompanied and strenghtened by daughter Chelsea, Hillary Clinton is traversing Iowa in a bus boldly emblazoned "Big Challenges, Real Solutions: Time to Pick a President."

Sen. Clinton's message, which has changed frequently over the past few months, now is focused on fear.... fear of gambling on inexperience, fear of making a bad choice in these dangerous times, fear of voting for a candidate who doesn't support universal health care.

A recent Zogby poll yielded excellent news for the Clinton campaign in Iowa: 73% of her supporters graded their support for her as "very strong" as versus 66% for Edwards and 63% for Obama. Clinton's main constituents are women and senior citizens. Given that the average age of 2004 Iowa caucus-goers was 62 years old, Sen. Clinton's support should hold firm.

A problem for Clinton's candidacy is that in order to win, she must attract votes from undecideds... and few people are undecided about Hillary Clinton.

Also, there's the matter of her oft grating voice and grim countenance: it turns voters off. Apparently, her staff FINALLY noticed the voice problem, and she's accordingly spoken in weirdly low, throaty tones in public appearances since last week. (Her voice was also expunged from her latest TV ads, in favor of soaring music.)

Who Will Win the Democratic Caucus in Iowa?
Of course, no one knows who will win the first race for the 2008 Democratic nomination for the presidency.

Conventional wisdom says that an Iowa win for John Edwards will help secure the nomination for Hillary Clinton, since Mr. Edwards lacks substantial support in any other state. To my thinking, though, Mrs. Clinton would need to finish a strong second to benefit from an Edwards win.

An Iowa win for Barack Obama would likely give him great momentum toward capturing the nomination, and a close second place finish shouldn't badly hurt his chances.

The third place Democratic finisher in Iowa likely has little chance for the party nomination.... unless third place is won by Mr. Richardson or Mr. Biden.

Or then again, maybe Iowa doesn't matter as much as the press has hyped. Maybe a single win or loss won't really matter to Edwards, Obama or Clinton. As Kathy Gill, About.com's Guide to Current Political Events asks about Iowa, "Does it really matter who wins? "

We'll find out soon. Very, very soon!

(Photo of John and Elizabeth Edwards taken on Dec 30, 2007 in Iowa: Win McNamee/Getty Images. Photo of Barack Obama taken on Dec 30, 2007 in Iowa: Scott Olson/Getty Images. Photo of Hillary Clinton and daughter Chelsea Clinton on Dec 31, 2007 in Iowa: Joe Raedle/Getty Images.)

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Newsday, Dec 31, 2007: Surging Edwards may be blessing for Clinton
MyDD, Dec 31, 2007: Edwards Rising