Hillary Clinton vs. Barack Obama: The Iowa Niceness Factor

Exactly four years ago this month, Sen. John Kerry ranked fourth among Democrats vying for the 2004 presidential nomination. And former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean was roundly declared the almost-impossible-to-beat leader in the race.

Three months later, Sen. Kerry won the Iowa Democratic caucus vote, and became the Democratic frontrunner. And Howard Dean's fortunes as a presidential candidate rapidly faded.

Likewise, the Democratic race for the 2008 nomination is far from over. Very far from over...

In the endless round of 2007 media-contrived "debates," we're learning less and less about the candidates at each successive event. (For example, see Democratic Debate Gone Bad: Worst Moments of the MSNBC Democratic Debate.)

On the whole, we're already familiar... exhaustingly over-familiar... with the policy stances and partisan bents of Obama, Clinton, Edwards, Richardson, Kucinich, Dodd and Biden.

And yet, understandably, millions of Democrats profess to still be "undecided" about their choice. Understandably because the differences between candidates are small, nuanced and often deliberately blurred on the Iraq War, on universal health care, on education, on energy conservation and alternative energy sources, on immigration, on national security and so forth.

Frankly, most Democratic voters see little to no difference at all between the party's candidates on the issues.

How Democrats Will Select Their 2008 Candidate
As has been the case at least since Ronald Reagan ascended to the White House in 1981, Americans will cast their primary/caucus votes based mainly on their perception of candidates' characters and personalities:

• Do I like this person?
• Do I trust this person?
• Do I admire this person?
• Do I feel comfortable with this person?
• Do I believe that this person has the sound judgment and/or depth of varied experience to be president?

And in 2007, Democrats also seem to care deeply about presidential candidates' spouses.

So the relevant question is... how are the top Democratic candidates' perceived by the liberal public, three months before the all-important Iowa caucus, a state where voters are renowned for detesting political bickering?

As Republican pundit Robert Novak noted in 2000 , "... niceness goes very far in Iowa."

Here's how I read the political tea leaves on Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama:

Sen. Hillary Clinton: Overexposed, Over-Confident (Hillary Clinton in 2008 Info Hub & Current News )
(Photo of Sen. Clinton: Darren McCollester/Getty Images)

At the MSNBC debate on September 26, Sen. Clinton transmitted an authentic persona of being competent, authoritative, pragmatic, smart and thoughtful. She also repeatedly conveyed a stubborn streak, and came across as controlling and pugilistic.

Much was made of her brittle laugh. A few pundits unfairly labeled it a "cackle," and one crass partisan even played the audio of Clinton's laugh while showing the frame of the green-faced Wicked Witch of the North from The Wizard of Oz.

To complicate matters for the senator, The Hill reported earlier this year:

" Half of voting-age Americans say they would not vote for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) if she became the Democratic nominee for president in 2008, according to a Harris Interactive poll released Tuesday...

"Forty-eight percent of Independent voters also said that they would choose another candidate over Clinton, the poll, which surveyed 2,223 potential voters, states."

And then there's the inevitable damage wreaked by overexposure and over-confidence. Headlines lately scream that Hillary has all but formally won the nomination. And this week, Bill and Hill were both quoted openly plotting Bill's role in Hillary's administration.

National polls mean little to the Iowa caucuses or the early primaries. Hillary Clinton's national poll lead is a poor predictor of her success in individual states, as Gov. Howard Dean 's national poll lead was a poor predictor in 2004.

What matters is: do likely voters in Iowa and New Hampshire like and feel comfortable with Hillary Clinton? My guess is a mediocre "some do-some don't" in Iowa, and "yes" in New Hampshire, where Bill Clinton has always enjoyed great electoral successes.

For example, in Iowa yesterday, October 7, Clinton "sparred verbally for several minutes with a man who pressed her on her recent vote to call Iran's army a terrorist organization." (See Clinton Gets Snippy with Iowan over Iran at MSNBC.) Reported Chuck Todd about Clinton's messy tangle with Randall Rolph:

" Rolph said after the event that he was a registered Democrat who had come with an open mind but that he would not be supporting Clinton after the way she responded. "

I'm not convinced that the Democratic party nomination is a done deal for Hillary Clinton. Too many people, too many Democrats, too many men just don't like Hillary Clinton. As Politico.com pointed out, Hillary Clinton is so polarizing that Republicans are "constantly invoking her as a way to pep up disconsolate conservatives."

Furthermore, with three long months to go until the first primaries, the Clintons are conducting themselves with an arrogant, self-assured entitlement that notoriously turns-off voters.

An important factor that bodes badly for Sen. Clinton's favor is this: if voters remain undecided today, they probably won't vote for Hillary Clinton. For a candidate who's supposedly "inevitable," the Iowa caucus count polls are mighty close.... which doesn't bode well, either.

If I was a betting woman, I wouldn't put my hard-earned dollars down on Hillary Clinton. Not yet, anyway.

Sen. Barack Obama, Energizing Community Organizer (Barack Obama in 2008 Info Hub & Current News)
(Photo of Sen. Obama: Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Don't ever underestimate the voter-energizing skills of an experienced community organizer such as Barack Obama.

Most Democrats forget, or never knew, that a young Barack Obama aggressively organized one of the largest voter registration drives in Chicago history to help Bill Clinton's 1992 election. (For more, see Profile of U.S. Senator Barack Obama of Illinois.)

For weeks, I've had the distinct impression that Barack Obama is ignoring the national arena, and focusing his efforts on winning the Iowa caucus, which might be held as early as January 3, 2008. My hunch was corroborated by Michelle Obama when she blurted last week:

" Iowa will make the difference. If Barack doesn't win Iowa, it's just a dream, but if we win Iowa, then we can move the world as it should be."

Obama apparently plans to spend a large portion of his massive campaign chest in Iowa on late-campaign ads. And his get-out-the-vote organization in Iowa is substantial, efficient and well-organized.

In homage to the Iowa "niceness" factor, Barack and Michelle Obama have been anything but snippy. Both have been unfailingly modest, unassuming, pleasant and wholly authentic on the endless campaign trail. And despite constant prodding by the pundits, Obama has avoided the nasty political bickering and jabs that seem to trail the Clintons.

As editor Roger Simon observed at Politico.com, "Barack Obama acts like he understands Iowa."

As a result, a Newsweek poll conducted in late September found that, by a 4% margin, Obama would be the top choice of Iowa caucus voters if they were casting their ballots today.

And on October 6, the New York Times reported that Sen. Obama is the Democratic candidate drawing big crowds in Iowa. The Times wrote:

" Nell Boyd, of Belmont... said she was intrigued by Mr. Obama and two weeks ago made the first political contribution of her life to his campaign.

" 'Hillary and Obama, it’s between the two of them. Neither one have completely convinced me,” she said, moments after chatting with Mr. Obama in Waterloo. 'The part I like about him is honesty. We should stand for that again.' "

Iowa Is Not Over Until It's Over
My point is that the Democratic race for the 2008 presidential nomination is not over. Far from it...

A few days ago, the New York Times concluded about the Iowa race, "Interviews with more than two dozen Democrats here this week suggest that the race remains remarkably unsettled... "

And Iowa matters. Only twice since 1980 has the victor of the Iowa Democratic caucus not also won the party's presidential nomination. And one of those two exceptions was favorite Iowa son, Sen. Tom Harkin.

I'm not ready to bet against Hillary Clinton in Iowa. But I'm watching the extra-important niceness factor. It might make all the difference...

Just ask pleasant-demeanored John Kerry and rambunctious Howard Dean.

(Photo of Sen. Clinton and Sen Obama debating: Stephen Morton/Getty Images)

Recommended Reading
Daunting Decision 2008: Obama or Clinton? Clinton or Obama?
New York Times, Oct 6, 2007: Iowans Take Their Time in Open Race
Politico.com, Oct 7, 2007: What would GOP do without Hillary?