There's Something Amiss about the Obama Buzz

There's something odd and slightly amiss about the Obama Buzz.

Obama Frenzy in New Hampshire
The frenzy in New Hampshire this past weekend over the senator's two appearances created an outpouring unseen since the Beatles first arrived on US shores in 1964. Since Bobby Kennedy ran for the presidency in 1968.

Since Al Gore unfurled "An Inconvenient Truth" in 2005, revealing that vindicated Democrats do, indeed, hold the high moral ground on all matters environmental. And by inference, all matters.

It's not that the appealing senator from Illinois shouldn't generate buzz. Barack Obama is gracious and articulate, bright and attractive, and like all deeply charismatic politicians, he's both chameleon and mirror. People see their hopes and fears in him, and he reflects them back with seeming graceful sincerity. He makes people feel good, and he makes them feel heard.

Obama Is the Anti-Iraq Study Group
And Obama speaks the visual and audio language of today.

He can talk in sound-bytes for cable news. He laughs with Jon Stewart, Jay Leno and David Letterman. He talks baseball with Keith Olbermann. He preaches faith with evangelical pastor Rick Warren. He looks as fitting on the cover of Vogue as he does on Newsweek. He's even savvy enough to quietly display a youthful-cool imperfection: he smokes.

Barack Obama is the anti-Iraq Study Group. He's not old. He's not a white-bread 20th-century policy wonk. And he's not boring... which, of course, is the ultimate political sin in 2006.

In fact, Obama was the first 2008 candidate to have a MySpace campaign site, and is a hands-down rock star on college campuses. Something that Hillary can only lust after, but will never, ever, EVER possess.

Which brings me to what's amiss about the unabated adulation for Sen. Barack Obama this past weekend in primary state New Hampshire...

Where's Hillary?
Per AP this morning, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton "won't make a decision about running for president until after the first of the year."

And AP continues, "The former first lady said she had not yet decided whether to form a presidential exploratory committee, but that technical requirements of federal election law might require her to do so if she continues to consider a presidential run."

Huh? Worrying about "technical requirements" that could force her to make a supposedly premature decision? From Hillary Clinton, considered an extraordinarily clever attorney who, in her pre-White House days, was often listed as a top trial attorney in the country?

Then there's the discreetly public Clinton camp hand-wringing over Hillary's 2006 campaign spending, which topped $30 million. Commented one Clintonista to the New York Times on November 21:

"The wasting of money -- it drives everybody crazy. She'd better get a handle on this if she is going to run for president.''

Huh? Financial worries from the 2008 candidate with the richest treasure chest? Per the New York Times today, "Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York remains the best financed. Ms. Clinton’s campaign reported $14.4 million in cash on hand and $1.2 million in debts. "

My Burning Question about Obama & Clinton 2008 Candidacies
Senator Clinton's unelectability to the presidency was well-known and obvious long before Senator Obama quite suddenly admitted in September that he's flirting with... undoubtedly now dating... the idea of President Barack Obama.

People don't like Hillary. They like Obama. That won't change before 2008. And it will cause Obama to win the 2008 Democratic nomination, if he chooses to run for it.

And by all reports, Senator Clinton is an outstanding, insightful and collegial senator. The powerful Senate is a wonderful fit for this workhorse policy wonk. And it's a hard-won position she will forever lose if she pursues a longshot run for the White House.

If Obama formally joins the 2008 race, I don't believe that Hillary will also run for the presidency in 2008. She won't sacrifice her senate seat for such a losing proposition.

But here's my burning question: Did Obama decide to publicly test the waters only after receiving tacit permission from the Clinton camp? Could Obama be Hillary's face-saving "OUT" from the 2008 race?

The Long Shadow of Bill & Hill
After all, Bill and Hillary Cinton are the two most powerful, well-connected, best-known and best-funded members of the Democratic Party today.

Does it make sense that the remarkably intuitive, politically-astute Barack Obama would be dumb enough to attempt to step on and over the Clinton franchise?

My guess is NO, and that the Clintons, realizing that this is clearly not Hillary's moment, signaled a lack of objection to Obama testing the 2008 presidential waters.

But at this time, mine is merely a guess. We will surely learn more in early 2007... and I will keep you posted.

One thing, though, is for certain: Regardless of whether or not Hillary runs in 2008, Bill & Hill will cast a long and significant shadow on the 2008 presidential race.

Recommended Reading
Profile of US Senator Barack Obama of Illinois
Profile of U.S. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York
New York Times, December 11, 2006: Obama Offers Flavor of Potential Campaign